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Gartner (Gartner) Predictability Rank


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What is Gartner Predictability Rank?

3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Gartner Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Gartner Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Gartner's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Gartner (Gartner) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
56 Top Gallant Road, P.O. Box 10212, Stamford, CT, USA, 06902-7700
Based in Stamford, Conn., Gartner provides independent research and analysis on information technology and other related technology industries. Its research is delivered to clients' desktops in the form of reports, briefings, and updates. Typical clients are chief information officers and other business executives who help plan companies' IT budgets. Gartner also provides consulting services and hosted nearly 80 IT conferences across the globe in 2007.
Executives
Claire Herkes officer: EVP, Conferences 56 TOP GALLANT ROAD, STAMFORD CT 06902
Robin B Kranich officer: SVP,Research Ops & Bus Dvlpmt 56 TOP GALLANT RD, STAMFORD CT 06902
Craig Safian officer: EVP & CFO 56 TOP GALLANT ROAD, STAMFORD CT 06904
Valentin Sribar officer: SVP, Research & Advisory 56 TOP GALLANT ROAD, STAMFORD CT 06902
Alwyn Dawkins officer: EVP, Conferences 56 TOP GALLANT ROAD, STAMFORD CT 06902
Akhil Jain officer: SVP, Consulting 56 TOP GALLANT ROAD, STAMFORD CT 06902
Richard J Bressler director 1515 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
James C Smith director C/O FIRST HEALTH GROUP CORP, 3200 HIGHLAND AVENUE, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Wartinbee William James Iii officer: SVP, Global Sales Strat & Ops 56 TOP GALLANT ROAD, STAMFORD CT 06902
Anne Sutherland Fuchs director
Joseph P. Beck officer: EVP, Global Technology Sales 56 TOP GALLANT RD., STAMFORD CT 06902
Eugene A Hall director, officer: CEO ONE ADP BLVD, ROSELAND NJ 07068
Altaf Rupani officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer 56 TOP GALLANT RD, STAMFORD CT 06902
Michael Fox Diliberto officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer 56 TOP GALLANT RD, STAMFORD CT 06904
Scott Hensel officer: EVP Consulting C/O GARTNER, INC., 56 TOP GALLANT RD., STAMFORD CT 06902

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