Integer Holdings (Integer Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Integer Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Integer Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Integer Holdings (Integer Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Integer Holdings Corp (NYSE:ITGR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WGB:Germany

Address

5830 Granite Parkway, Suite 1150, Plano, TX, USA, 75024

Website

https://www.integer.net

Integer Holdings Corp is a manufacturer of medical device components used by original equipment manufacturers in the medical industry. The company also develops batteries used in nonmedical applications in the energy, military, and environmental markets. The firm organizes itself into two business segments based on the product type: medical and nonmedical. The medical segment uses the firm's technologies to produce components and finished medical devices, and it generates the vast majority of revenue. The company earns more than half of its revenue in the United States.

Executives

Donald J Spence	director	C/O OAKMONT ACQUISITION CORP., 33 BLOOMFIELD HILLS PARKWAY, SUITE 240, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304
Jean M. Hobby	director	10000 WEHRLE DRIVE, CLARENCE NY 14031
Jim Stephens	officer: President, CRM & Neuro	5830 GRANITE PARKWAY, SUITE 1150, PLANO TX 75024
Diron Smith	officer: VP, Interim CFO	5830 GRANITE PARKWAY, SUITE 1150, PLANO TX 75024
Joseph W Dziedzic	director	1801 BAYBERRY COURT, RICHMOND VA 23226
Pamela G Bailey	director	1200 G ST NW, STE 400, WASHINGTON DC 20005-3814
Jennifer M Bolt	officer: President, Electrochem	10000 WEHRLE DRIVE, CLARENCE NY 14031
Carter Houghton	officer: President, Electrochem	10000 WEHRLE DRIVE, CLARENCE NY 14031
Andrew Senn	officer: SVP, Strategy and Business Dev	5830 GRANITE PARKWAY, SUITE 1150, PLANO TX 75024
Marshall Mcalister C Ii	officer: SVP, Gen Counsel & Secretary	1801 BAYBERRY COURT, P.O. BOX 18100, RICHMOND VA 23226
Margaret Carthy	officer: SVP, Quality & Regulatory Affa	5830 GRANITE PARKWAY, SUITE 1150, PLANO TX 75024
Joseph F Flanagan	officer: EVP, Quality & Regulatory Affa	10000 WEHRLE DRIVE, CLARENCE NY 14031
Bill R Sanford	director	2617 BULRUSH LANE, NAPLES FL 34105
Anthony W Borowicz	officer: SVP Strategy,Corp Dev., IR	10000 WEHRLE DRIVE, CLARENCE NY 14031
Sheila Antrum	director	5830 GRANITE PARKWAY, SUITE 1150, PLANO TX 75024