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KGS (Kodiak Gas Services) Predictability Rank


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What is Kodiak Gas Services Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Kodiak Gas Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Kodiak Gas Services Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Kodiak Gas Services's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Kodiak Gas Services Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
9950 Woodloch Forest Drive, Suite 1900, The Woodlands, TX, USA, 77380
Kodiak Gas Services Inc is an operator of contract compression infrastructure in the United States. It manages business through two operating segments namely Contract Services and Other Services. Contract Services consists of operating Company-owned and customer-owned compression, and gas treating and cooling infrastructure, pursuant to primarily fixed-revenue contracts to enable the production and gathering of natural gas and oil. Other Services consist of a full range of contract services to support the ancillary needs of customers, including station construction, maintenance and overhaul, freight and crane charges, and other time and material-based offerings.
Executives
Eqt Fund Management S.a R.l. 10 percent owner 51A BOULEVARD ROYAL, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2449
Ewan William Hamilton officer: See Remarks C/O KODIAK GAS SERVICES, INC., 15320 HIGHWAY 105 W, SUITE 210, MONTGOMERY TX 77356
Margaret C Montana director 910 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Terry Bonno director 7402 NORTH ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77041
Robert Michael Mckee director, officer: See Remarks C/O KODIAK GAS SERVICES, INC., 15320 HIGHWAY 105 W, SUITE 210, MONTGOMERY TX 77356
Nirav Kush Shah director C/O KODIAK GAS SERVICES, INC., 15320 HIGHWAY 105 W, SUITE 210, MONTGOMERY TX 77356
Christopher Drumgoole director C/O DXC TECHNOLOGY COMPANY, 1775 TYSONS BOOULEVARD, TYSONS VA 22102
Roclawski Cory Anne officer: See Remarks C/O KODIAK GAS SERVICES, INC., 15320 HIGHWAY 105 W, SUITE 210, MONTGOMERY TX 77356
Kelly Michelle Battle officer: See Remarks C/O KODIAK GAS SERVICES, INC., 15320 HIGHWAY 105 W, SUITE 210, MONTGOMERY TX 77356
Jon-al Duplantier director C/O PARKER DRILLING COMPANY, 5 GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77046
John Griggs officer: See Remarks C/O RUBICON, 7850 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY WEST, HOUSTON TX 77064
William Chad Lenamon officer: See Remarks C/O KODIAK GAS SERVICES, INC., 15320 HIGHWAY 105 W, SUITE 210, MONTGOMERY TX 77356
Randall J Hogan director 5500 WAYZATA BLVD., SUITE 600, GOLDEN VALLEY MN 55416
Frontier Topco Partnership, L.p. 10 percent owner 26A, BOULEVARD ROYAL, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2449
Teresa Maria Mattamouros director C/O KODIAK GAS SERVICES, INC., 15320 HIGHWAY 105 W, SUITE 210, MONTGOMERY TX 77356