KGS (Kodiak Gas Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Kodiak Gas Services Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kodiak Gas Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Kodiak Gas Services Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Kodiak Gas Services Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Kodiak Gas Services Inc (NYSE:KGS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

Q41:Germany

Address

9950 Woodloch Forest Drive, Suite 1900, The Woodlands, TX, USA, 77380

Website

https://www.kodiakgas.com

Kodiak Gas Services Inc is an operator of contract compression infrastructure in the United States. It manages business through two operating segments namely Contract Services and Other Services. Contract Services consists of operating Company-owned and customer-owned compression, and gas treating and cooling infrastructure, pursuant to primarily fixed-revenue contracts to enable the production and gathering of natural gas and oil. Other Services consist of a full range of contract services to support the ancillary needs of customers, including station construction, maintenance and overhaul, freight and crane charges, and other time and material-based offerings.

Executives

Eqt Fund Management S.a R.l.	10 percent owner	51A BOULEVARD ROYAL, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2449
Ewan William Hamilton	officer: See Remarks	C/O KODIAK GAS SERVICES, INC., 15320 HIGHWAY 105 W, SUITE 210, MONTGOMERY TX 77356
Margaret C Montana	director	910 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Terry Bonno	director	7402 NORTH ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77041
Robert Michael Mckee	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O KODIAK GAS SERVICES, INC., 15320 HIGHWAY 105 W, SUITE 210, MONTGOMERY TX 77356
Nirav Kush Shah	director	C/O KODIAK GAS SERVICES, INC., 15320 HIGHWAY 105 W, SUITE 210, MONTGOMERY TX 77356
Christopher Drumgoole	director	C/O DXC TECHNOLOGY COMPANY, 1775 TYSONS BOOULEVARD, TYSONS VA 22102
Roclawski Cory Anne	officer: See Remarks	C/O KODIAK GAS SERVICES, INC., 15320 HIGHWAY 105 W, SUITE 210, MONTGOMERY TX 77356
Kelly Michelle Battle	officer: See Remarks	C/O KODIAK GAS SERVICES, INC., 15320 HIGHWAY 105 W, SUITE 210, MONTGOMERY TX 77356
Jon-al Duplantier	director	C/O PARKER DRILLING COMPANY, 5 GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77046
John Griggs	officer: See Remarks	C/O RUBICON, 7850 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY WEST, HOUSTON TX 77064
William Chad Lenamon	officer: See Remarks	C/O KODIAK GAS SERVICES, INC., 15320 HIGHWAY 105 W, SUITE 210, MONTGOMERY TX 77356
Randall J Hogan	director	5500 WAYZATA BLVD., SUITE 600, GOLDEN VALLEY MN 55416
Frontier Topco Partnership, L.p.	10 percent owner	26A, BOULEVARD ROYAL, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2449
Teresa Maria Mattamouros	director	C/O KODIAK GAS SERVICES, INC., 15320 HIGHWAY 105 W, SUITE 210, MONTGOMERY TX 77356