KNF (Knife River Holding Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Knife River Holding Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Knife River Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Knife River Holding Co Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Building Materials » Knife River Holding Co (NYSE:KNF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1150 West Century Avenue, P.O. Box 5568, Bismarck, ND, USA, 58503

Website

https://www.kniferiver.com

Knife River Holding Co is an aggregates-led construction materials and contracting services provider. Its segments include Pacific, Northwest, Mountain, North Central, South, and Energy Services. Each geographic segment offers a vertically integrated suite of products and services, including aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, and contracting services, while the Energy Services segment, which has locations throughout the company's geographic footprint, produces and supplies liquid asphalt and related services, for use in asphalt road construction, and is a supplier to some of the other segments.

Executives

Brian R. Gray	director, officer: President & CEO	1200 WEST CENTURY AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58503
Thomas S Everist	director
William J Sandbrook	director	C/O U.S. CONCRETE, INC., 331 N. MAIN STREET, EULESS TX 76039
Trevor J Hastings	officer: Vice President & COO	1250 WEST CENTURY AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58503
Karen B Fagg	director	P. O. BOX 5650, BISMARCK ND 58506-5650
German Carmona-alvarez	director	1200 WEST CENTURY AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58503
Glenn R. Pladsen	officer: VP of Support Services	1150 WEST CENTURY AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58503
John F. Quade	officer: VP of Business Development	1150 WEST CENTURY AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58503
Marney L. Kadrmas	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1150 WEST CENTURY AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58503
Patricia L Moss	director	1100 N.W. WALL STREET, P.O. BOX 369, BEND OR 97701
Jason L Vollmer	director	1200 WEST CENTURY AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58503
David L Goodin	director, officer: Chair of the Board	400 NORTH FOURTH STREET, BISMARCK ND 58501
Nathan W Ring	officer: Vice President & CFO	1150 WEST CENTURY AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58503
Karl A Liepitz	director, officer: General Counsel & Secretary	1200 WEST CENTURY AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58503
Mdu Resources Group Inc	10 percent owner	1200 WEST CENTURY AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58503