KTEL (KonaTel) Predictability Rank

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What is KonaTel Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

KonaTel Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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KonaTel Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » KonaTel Inc (OTCPK:KTEL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500 N. Central Expressway, Suite 202, Plano, TX, USA, 75074

Website

https://www.konatel.com

KonaTel Inc is a reseller of U.S. wireless network service. The company operates in two segments: Hosted Services and Mobile Services. The Hosted Services segment includes a suite of hosted CPaaS services, including SIP/VoIP services, SMS/MMS, BOT integration, NLP, ML, mobile numbers, toll-free numbers, DID landline numbers, SMS to Email, Database Dip, SD-WAN, wireless data services, voice termination, and numerous API driven services. The Mobile Services include retail and wholesale cellular voice/text/data services and mobile data (IoT). The company generates maximum revenue from the Mobile Services segment.

Executives

Jason N. Welch	officer: President of IM Telecom (Sub.)	135 LIBERTYVILLE ROAD, SUSSEX NJ 07461
Todd Murcer	officer: EVP Finance and Secretary	9248 RAEFORD DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75243
Charles David Griffin	officer: COO, President	2702 BLACK CANYON WAY, CASTLE ROCK CO 80109
David S Mcewen	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	500 N. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 202, PLANO TX 75074
Matthew Hugh Atkinson	10 percent owner, officer: Secretary	P. O. BOX 947, CROSSLAKE MN 56442
Robert Matthew Beaty	director	7960 S. FILLMORE CT., CENTENNIAL CO 80122
Kenneth Paul Lapier	officer: Vice President, Secretary	8205 MUNICH DRIVE, ROWLETT TX 75089
Joshua Ploude	10 percent owner	728 CYPRESS AVE., HERMOSA BEACH CA 90254
Jeffrey Pearl	director	35 WEST MAIN #6013, FRISCO CO 80443
Mark S Savage	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO, Treasurer, CFO	13911 RIDGEDALE DRIVE, SUITE 375, MINNETONKA MN 55305
Terry Wain Addington	director	376 S. SANDERLIN MOUNTAIN DR., 11774 BIG CANOE, JASPER GA 30143
Dennis Miller	director	18930 JASMINE ROAD, MANKATO MN 56001
Brian R. Riffle	officer: CFO	241 BENTWOOD AVENUE, JOHNSTOWN PA 15904
Daniel E. Ryweck	director	712 VISTA BLVD #305, WACONIA MN 55387
Brunson Chandler & Jones Pllc	10 percent owner	175 SOUTH MAIN ST., SUITE 1500, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111