LAW (CS Disco) Predictability Rank

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What is CS Disco Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CS Disco Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CS Disco Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » CS Disco Inc (NYSE:LAW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

111 Congress Avenue, Suite 900, Austin, TX, USA, 78701

Website

https://www.csdisco.com

CS Disco Inc provides a cloud-native, artificial intelligence-powered legal solution that simplifies discovery, legal document review, and case management for enterprises, law firms, legal services providers, and governments. Its revenue-generating activities directly relate to the sale and support of legal solutions. It has two primary types of contractual arrangements: usage-based and subscription solutions. The usage-based revenue is derived from contracts under which customers are billed monthly based on their usage. Subscription revenue is derived from contracts where customers are contractually committed to a minimum data volume over a period of time.

Executives

Michael Lafair	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CS DISCO, INC., 3700 N. CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE 150, AUSTIN TX 78746
Scott A Hill	director	INTERCONTINENTALEXCHANGE, INC., 2100 RIVEREDGE PKWY. STE. 500, ATLANTA GA 30328
Kevin Joseph Smith	officer: EVP, Chief Product Officer	C/O CS DISCO, INC., 3700 N. CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, STE 150, AUSTIN TX 78746
James Offerdahl	director	11501 DOMAIN DRIVE, SUITE 200, AUSTIN TX 78758
Keith Zoellner	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O CS DISCO, INC., 3700 N. CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE 150, AUSTIN TX 78746
Susan L Blount	director	C/O PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL, INC, 751 BROAD STREET, FOURTH FLOOR, NEWARK NJ 07102
Andrew Shimek	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O CS DISCO, INC., 3700 N. CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE 150, AUSTIN TX 02116
Kiwi Camara	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CS DISCO, INC., 3700 N. CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, STE 150, AUSTIN TX 78746
Bessemer Venture Partners Viii L.p.	10 percent owner	1865 PALMER AVENUE, LARCHMONT NY 01538
Stephens Group, Llc	10 percent owner	100 RIVER BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 500, LITTLE ROCK AR 72202
Lovp Sbic Management Services, Llc	10 percent owner	805 LAS CIMAS PARKWAY SUITE 125, AUSTIN CA 78746
Krishna Srinivasan	director, 10 percent owner	4030 W. BRAKER LANE, BUILDING 2-100, AUSTIN TX 78759
Bessemer Venture Partners Viii Institutional L.p.	10 percent owner	1865 PALMER AVENUE, LARCHMONT NY 01538
Robert P Goodman	director	1865 PALMER AVENUE, SUITE 104, LARCHMONT NY 10538
Deer Viii & Co. Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS, 1865 PALMER AVENUE, LARCHMONT NY 10538