Logicquest Technology (Logicquest Technology) Predictability Rank

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What is Logicquest Technology Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Logicquest Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Logicquest Technology Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Logicquest Technology (Logicquest Technology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Logicquest Technology Inc (OTCPK:LOGQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5 Independence Way, Suite 300, Princeton, NJ, USA, 08540

Website

http://www.logq-inc.com

Logicquest Technology Inc is a blank check company.

Executives

Ben Errez	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, CEO, President	8880 RIO SAN DIEGO DR., SUITE 102, SAN DIEGO CA 92108
Ryvyl Inc.	10 percent owner	3131 CAMINO DEL RIO NORTH, SUITE 1400, SAN DIEGO CA 92108
Ezra Laniado	director	3131 CAMINO DEL RIO NORTH, SUITE 1400, SAN DIEGO CA 92108
Genevieve Baer	director	3131 CAMINO DEL RIO NORTH, SUITE 1400, SAN DIEGO CA 92108
Fredi Nisan	10 percent owner	8880 RIO SAN DIEGO DR., SUITE 102, SAN DIEGO CA 92108
Greenbox Pos Llc	10 percent owner	8880 RIO SAN DIEGO DR., SUITE 102, SAN DIEGO CA 92108
Stephen J Sperco	officer: COO	TWO PRUDENTIAL PLAZA, SUITE 700, 180 NORTH STETSON AVE, CHICAGO IL 60601
Sai Corp	10 percent owner	TWO PRUDENTIAL PLAZA,, SUITE 700, 180 NORTH STETSON AVENUE, CHICAGO IL 60601
Dale Geary	director	TWO PRUDENTIAL PLAZA, SUITE 700, 180 N. STETSON AVE., CHICAGO IL 60601
Charles E Leibold	officer: CFO	701 NORTH POST OAK, SUITE 630, HOUSTON TX 77024
Larry R Walker	other: President of Subsidiary	701 N. POST OAK ROAD, SUITE 630, HOUSTON TX 77024
Richard T Yee	officer: V.P. Operation	701 N. POST OAK ROAD, SUITE 630, HOUSTON TX 77024
Steven M Plumb	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5300 NORTH BREASEWOOD, PMB #370, HOUSTON TX 77096-3317
Manfred Sternberg & Associates Pc	10 percent owner	C/O MANFRED STERNBERG, 701 NORTH POST OAK RD #650, HOUSTON TX 77024
Ccii Joint Venture No.1, A Texas Joint Venture	10 percent owner	11420 BLONDO STREET, SUITE 103, OMAHA NE 68164

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