LTH (Life Time Group Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Life Time Group Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Life Time Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Life Time Group Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Life Time Group Holdings Inc (NYSE:LTH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2902 Corporate Place, Chanhassen, MN, USA, 55317

Website

https://www.lifetime.life

Life Time Group Holdings Inc is a lifestyle and leisure brand offering health, fitness, and wellness experiences to a community. It is engaged in designing, building, and operating distinctive and large, multi-use sports and athletic, professional fitness, family recreation, and spa centers in a resort-like environment, principally in residential locations of metropolitan areas in the United States and Canada.

Executives

Erik Weaver	officer: SVP & Controller	C/O ORTHO-CLINICAL DIAGNOSTICS, INC., 1001 ROUTE 202, RARITAN NJ 08869
Tpg Gp A, Llc	10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Bahram Akradi	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Founder & CEO	2902 CORPORATE PLACE, CHANHASSEN MN 55317
Ritadhwaja Jebens Singh	officer: EVP & Chief Digital Officer	C/O LIFE TIME GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 2902 CORPORATE PLACE, CHANHASSEN MN 55317
Parham Javaheri	officer: See Remarks	C/O LIFE TIME GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 2902 CORPORATE PLACE, CHANHASSEN MN 55317
Partners Group Private Equity (master Fund), Llc	10 percent owner	1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Green Ltf Holdings Ii Lp	director, 10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
John Kristofer Galashan	director, 10 percent owner	LEONARD, GREEN & PARTNERS, 11111 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Robert P. Houghton	officer: EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	2902 CORPORATE PLACE, CHANHASSEN MN 55317
Teacher Retirement System Of Texas	other: Member of a group that is 10%	1000 RED RIVER STREET, AUSTIN TX 78701
Donna Coallier	director	2902 CORPORATE PLACE, CHANHASSEN MN 55317
Jon Winkelried	10 percent owner	C/O GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Stuart G. Lasher	director	4931 NEW PROVIDENCE, TAMPA FL 33629
Simon Property Group Inc /de/	10 percent owner	225 WEST WASHINGTON STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204-3438
Msd Capital L P	10 percent owner	1 VANDERBILT AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017-5407