LXEO (Lexeo Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Lexeo Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lexeo Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Lexeo Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Lexeo Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Lexeo Therapeutics Inc (NAS:LXEO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

345 Park Avenue South, Floor 6, New York, NY, USA, 10010

Website

https://www.lexeotx.com

Lexeo Therapeutics Inc is a a clinical-stage genetic medicines company dedicated to transforming healthcare by applying pioneering science to fundamentally change how disease is treated. Its pipeline consists of candidates targeting patient populations that place significant burden on society and are most amenable to their genetic medicine approach. The Company is focused on preclinical and clinical stage gene therapies, and specifically on hereditary and acquired diseases of high unmet need which is their only business segment.

Executives

Paula H Cholmondeley	director	221 W PHILADELPHIA ST, SUITE 60W, YORK PA 17401-2991
Richard Nolan Townsend	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O LEXEO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Lundbeckfond Invest A/s	10 percent owner	SCHERFIGSVEJ 7, COPENHAGEN G7 DK-2100
Longitude Capital Partners Iv, Llc	10 percent owner	2740 SAND HILL ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Omega Fund Vi Gp, L.p.	10 percent owner	888 BOYLSTON STREET, SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199
Omega Fund Vi, L.p.	10 percent owner	888 BOYLSTON ST., SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199
Jenny Robertson	officer: Chief Legal and Admin. Officer	C/O LEXEO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Paul Mccormac	officer: Chief Technical Officer	C/O LEXEO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Bernard Davitian	director	C/O LEXEO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Eric Adler	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O LEXEO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Brenda Cooperstone	director	C/O SENTI BIOSCIENCES, INC., 2 CORPORATE DRIVE FIRST FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Longitude Venture Partners Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	2740 SAND HILL ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Omega Fund Vi Gp Manager, Ltd.	10 percent owner	888 BOYLSTON STREET, SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199
Reinaldo M Diaz	director	C/O DIAZ & ALTSCHUL CAPITAL, 950 THIRD AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Mette Kirstine Agger	director	C/O SCPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2400 DISTRICT AVENUE SUITE 310, BURLINGTON MA 01830