What is Malibu Boats Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Malibu Boats Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Malibu Boats Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
5075 Kimberly Way, Loudon, TN, USA, 37774
Malibu Boats is a leading designer and manufacturer of power boats in the United States. It is the market leader in performance sport boats, sold under its Malibu and Axis brands. It acquired Cobalt Boats, a leading producer of sterndrive boats in the us in the 24- to 29-foot segment, in 2017 and Pursuit Boats, which makes high-end offshore and outboard motorboats, in 2018. In 2021, it purchased Maverick Boat Group, a leading seller of flat fishing boats, including bay, dual-console, and center-console boats. Malibu has also expanded into boat trailers and accessories and in 2020 began producing its own engines (Monsoon) for its performance sport boats and now for Cobalt. Malibu's target market includes a wide range of water enthusiasts who embrace the active outdoor lifestyle.
Executives
| Mark W. Lanigan |
director, 10 percent owner |
5075 KIMBERLY WAY, LOUDON TN 37774 |
| Michael K. Hooks |
director, 10 percent owner |
2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| David Scott Black |
officer: Interim CFO |
C/O MALIBU BOATS, INC., 5075 KIMBERLY WAY, LOUDON TN 37774 |
| Ritchie L. Anderson |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
5075 KIMBERLY WAY, LOUDON TN 37774 |
| Springer Jackie D. Jr. |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
5075 KIMBERLY WAY, LOUDON TN 37774 |
| Nancy M Taylor |
director |
TREDEGAR CORP, 1100 BOULDERS PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23219 |
| Peter E Murphy |
director |
ONE CAESARS PALACE DRIVE, LAS VEGAS NV 89109 |
| Wayne R. Wilson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
5075 KIMBERLY WAY, LOUDON TN 37774 |
| Joan M Lewis |
director |
C/O MALIBU BOATS, INC., 5075 KIMBERLY WAY, LOUDON TN 37774 |
| Deborah S. Kent |
officer: VP Human Resources |
5075 KIMBERLY WAY, LOUDON TN 37774 |
| Phillip S. Estes |
director |
5075 KIMBERLY WAY, LOUDON TN 37774 |
| St Clair William Paxson Jr |
director, officer: President of Cobalt Boats, LLC |
2625 VERONA ROAD, MISSION HILLS KS 66208 |
| Dan L. Gasper |
officer: VP of Product Design |
5075 KIMBERLY WAY, LOUDON TN 37774 |
| Black Canyon Investments, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 11TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| Canyon Value Realization Master Fund, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 11TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
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