Seacor Marine Holdings (Seacor Marine Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Seacor Marine Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Seacor Marine Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Seacor Marine Holdings (Seacor Marine Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Seacor Marine Holdings Inc (NYSE:SMHI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SQZ:Germany

Address

12121 Wickchester Lane, Suite 500, Houston, TX, USA, 77079

Website

https://www.seacormarine.com

Seacor Marine Holdings Inc provides global marine and support transportation services to offshore energy facilities worldwide. The company operates and manages a diverse fleet of offshore support vessels that deliver cargo and personnel to offshore installations including wind farms; handle anchors and mooring equipment required to tether rigs to the seabed; tow rigs and assist in placing them on location and moving them between regions; provide construction, well work-over, maintenance and decommissioning support and carry and launch equipment used underwater in drilling and well installation, maintenance, inspection and repair. Its geographical segment includes the United States, primarily Gulf of Mexico; Africa and Europe, continuing operations; Middle East and Asia and Latin America.

Executives

Julie Persily	director	399 PARK AVENUE, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Robert Christopher Regan	director	318 MT. HOLLY ROAD, KATONAH NY 10536
Jesus Llorca	officer: EVP & CFO	C/O SEACOR MARINE HOLDINGS INC., 12121 WICKCHESTER LANE, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77079
Everett Andrew H Ii	officer: Sr. VP, General Counsel & Secy	C/O SEACOR MARINE HOLDINGS INC., 12121 WICKCHESTER LANE, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77079
Gregory Scott Rossmiller	officer: SVP & CAO	5643 WILLERS WAY, HOUSTON TX 77056
Charles Fabrikant	director	C/O SEACOR HOLDINGS INC., 2200 ELLER DRIVE, PO BOX 13038, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33316
Robert D. Abendschein	director	SEACOR MARINE HOLDINGS INC., 7910 MAIN STREET, 2ND FLOOR, HOUMA LA 70360
John M Gellert	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O SEACOR HOLDINGS, 460 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Anthony Weller	officer: SVP/Managing Dir-Int'l Div	C/O SEACOR MARINE HOLDINGS, 7910 MAIN STREET, 2ND FLOOR, HOUMA LA 70360
Bejos Alfredo Miguel	director	C/O SEACOR MARINE HOLDINGS INC., 12121 WICKCHESTER LANE, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77079
Andrew R Morse	director	34 PLEASANT RIDGE RD, HARRISON NY 10528
Robert Clemons	officer: EVP & COO	C/O SEACOR MARINE HOLDINGS INC., 7910 MAIN STREET, 2ND FLOOR, HOUMA LA 70360
Matthew Cenac	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	C/O SEACOR HOLDINGS INC., 2200 ELLER DRIVE, PO BOX 13038, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33316
Clyde Camburn	officer: Senior VP and CAO	C/O SEACOR MARINE HOLDINGS INC., 7910 MAIN STREET, 2ND FLOOR, HOUMA LA 70360
Ferris Hussein	director	C/O SEACOR MARINE HOLDINGS INC., 7910 MAIN STREET, 2NS FLOOR, HOUMA LA 70360