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MPTI (M-Tron Industries) Predictability Rank


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What is M-Tron Industries Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

M-Tron Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

M-Tron Industries Predictability Rank Related Terms

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M-Tron Industries Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » M-Tron Industries Inc (AMEX:MPTI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
RELL GAUZ NEON LPTH WBX ELTK OPTX LINK REFR KOPN APH TPE:2317 TEL GLW TPE:2308 SZSE:002475 TSE:6981 TSE:6762 SZSE:000725 JBL
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2525 Shader Road, Orlando, FL, USA, 32804
Website
https://www.mtronpti.com
M-Tron Industries Inc is a diversified holding company with subsidiaries engaged in designing, manufacturing, and marketing high-engineered, high-reliability frequency and spectrum control products used to control the frequency or timing of signals in electronic circuits in various applications. The company's serving markets are aerospace and defense, space, and avionics. The company offers products such as microwave and millimeter wave filters; cavity, crystal, ceramic, lumped element, and switched filters; crystal resonators, integrated microwave assemblies, and solid-state power amplifier products.
Executives
Mario J Gabelli 10 percent owner 191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Ivan Arteaga director 497 EISENHOWER COURT, WYCKOFF NJ 07481
William Arnold Drafts officer: President 746 CRISTALDI WAY, LONGWOOD FL 32779
Ferrantino Michael J Jr director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 12 MARTINGALE LANE, ANDOVER MA 01810
James William Tivy officer: Chief Financial Officer 220 E. CENTRAL PARKWAY, SUITE 2060, ALTAMONTE SPRINGS FL 32701
Linda M Biles officer: VP, Controller 2525 SHADER ROAD, ORLANDO FL 32804
Marc Gabelli director, 10 percent owner 401 THEODORE FREMD AVE, RYE NY 10580
Bel Lazar director 4705 S. APOPKA VINELAND ROAD, SUITE 201, ORLANDO FL 32819
Hendi Susanto director 2525 SHADER RD., ORLANDO FL 32804
Lapenta Robert V Jr director C/O ASTON CAPITAL, 177 BROAD ST., 12TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06901
David M Goldman director ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
John S Mega director C/O L-3 COMMUNICATIONS CORPORATION, 600 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016