MSD (Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd) Predictability Rank

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What is Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd Inc (NYSE:MSD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1585 Broadway, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.morganstanley.com

Morgan Stanley Emerg Mkts Debt Fd Inc is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. The Fund's primary investment objective is to produce high current income and as a secondary objective to seek capital appreciation, through investments mainly in debt securities of government and government-related issuers located in emerging countries, of entities organized to restructure the outstanding debt of such issuers and debt securities of corporate issuers in or organized under the laws of emerging countries.

Executives

Michael J Key	officer: Vice President	1633 BROADWAY, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Kyle Lee	officer: Portfolio Manager	1633 BROADWAY, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Federico C Sequeda	officer: Portfolio Manager	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Ali Akbar Causer	officer: Portfolio Manager	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Eddie Arthur Grier	other: Advisory Board Member	11700 PLAZA AMERICA DRIVE, SUITE 500, RESTON VA 20190
Frances Cashman	other: Advisory Board Member	MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 1633 BROADWAY 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Deidre Downes	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	1633 BROADWAY, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Patricia A Maleski	director	C/O J P MORGAN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC, 522 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Timothy J Knierim	officer: CCO	100 MULBERRY STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Sahil Tandon	officer: Portfolio Manager	522 5TH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jakki L. Haussler	director	221 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Nancy Everett	director	1812 PARK AVE, RICHMOND VA 23220
Nystedt Bo Jens Andreas	other: Portfolio Manager	522 5TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Warren John Mar	other: Portfolio Manager	522 5TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Joseph C Benedetti	officer: Vice President	C/O INVESCO, 225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281