MTUS (Metallus) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

What is Metallus Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Metallus Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Metallus Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Metallus's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Metallus Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Steel » Metallus Inc (NYSE:MTUS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ZS2:Germany

Address

1835 Dueber Avenue South West, Canton, OH, USA, 44706

Website

https://www.metallus.com

Metallus Inc is an America-based manufacturer of alloy steel, as well as carbon and micro-alloy steel. The portfolio of the company includes special bar quality steel, seamless mechanical tubes, and value-add solutions, such as precision steel components. The company also supplies machining and thermal treatment services and manages raw material recycling programs that work as a feeder system for its melt operations. The company's products and services are used in the following sectors: oil and gas; automotive; industrial equipment; mining; construction; rail; aerospace and defense; heavy truck; agriculture and power generation. Geographically, the company mainly serves customers in the United States.

Executives

Kevin A Raketich	officer: EVP, Sales, Mktg. & Bus. Dev.	1835 DUEBER AVE. SW, CANTON OH 44706
Kristopher R Westbrooks	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	3637 RIDGEWOOD ROAD, FAIRLAWN OH 44333
Kristine C Syrvalin	officer: EVP General Counsel	1835 DUEBER AVE. SW, CANTON OH 44706
Michael S Williams	director, officer: President & CEO	1835 DUEBER AVE. SW, CANTON OH 44706
Nicholas A Yacobozzi	officer: Corporate Controller	1835 DUEBER AVE SW, GNE-15, CANTON OH 44706
Jamy P. Rankin	director	C/O MOTOR CAR PARTS OF AMERICA, INC., 2929 CALIFORNIA STREET, TORRANCE CA 90503
Mary Ellen Baker	director	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06901
Nicholas J. Chirekos	director	C/O ASSISTANT CORPORATE SECRETARY, PEABODY ENERGY CORP., 701 MARKET ST., ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Ken V Garcia	director	1835 DUEBER AVE. SW, CANTON OH 44706
Ellis Allen Jones	director	1835 DUEBER AVE. SW, CANTON OH 44706
William P Bryan	officer: EVP, Mfg and Supply Chain	1835 DUEBER AVENUE, S.W., CANTON OH 44706
Thomas D Moline	officer: EVP, Commercial Operations	1835 DUEBER AVENUE, S.W., CANTON OH 44706
Leila L Vespoli	director	C/O FIRSTENERGY CORP, 76 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44308
Marvin Riley	director	5605 CARNEGIE BLVD., STE. 500, CHARLOTTE NC 28209
Timken Ward J Jr	director, officer: President, CEO, Chairman	200 MARKET AVE N STE 210, CANTON OH 44702