Ncino (NCNO) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2020. Start your Free Trial

What is Ncino Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ncino Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Ncino Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ncino's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Ncino (NCNO) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Ncino Inc (NAS:NCNO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6NCA:Germany

Address

6770 Parker Farm Drive, Wilmington, NC, USA, 28405

Website

https://www.ncino.com

Ncino Inc is a provider of cloud-based software for financial institutions. Its software solution digitizes, automates, and streamlines inefficient and complex processes & workflow and utilizes data analytics & artificial intelligence that enables financial institutions to more effectively onboard new clients, make loans and manage the entire loan life cycle, open deposit, and other accounts and manage regulatory compliance. It also offers professional services, including configuration & implementation, training, and advisory services. Ncino generates the majority of its revenue from subscription services. The company caters to global financial institutions, enterprise banks, regional banks, community banks, and credit unions. The vast majority of its revenue comes from the United States.

Executives

April Rieger	officer: Chief Lgl. & Compl. Ofc., Sec.	6770 PARKER FARM DRIVE, SUITE 200, WILMINGTON NC 28405
Sean Desmond	officer: Chief Customer Success Officer	6770 PARKER FARM DRIVE, SUITE 300, WILMINGTON NC 28405
Pierre Naude	director, officer: CEO	6770 PARKER FARM DRIVE, SUITE 200, WILMINGTON NC 28405
Steven A Collins	director	20 N. MERIDIAN STREET, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Matthew Royce Hansen	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O SOUTHPORT ACQUISITION CORPORATION, 1745 GRAND AVENUE, DEL MAR CA 92014
Jeanette Sellers	officer: VP of Accounting	6770 PARKER FARM DRIVE, SUITE 300, WILMINGTON NC 28405
Joshua L Glover	officer: President & Chief Rev Officer	6770 PARKER FARM DRIVE, SUITE 300, WILMINGTON NC 28405
Gregory Orenstein	officer: Chief Corp Dev & Strat Officer	6770 PARKER FARM DRIVE, SUITE 300, WILMINGTON NC 28405
Jeff Horing	director, 10 percent owner	INSIGHT PARTNERS, 680 5TH AVENUE 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
William R Spruill	director	6770 PARKER FARM DRIVE, SUITE 200, WILMINGTON NC 28405
David Rudow	officer: CFO & Treasurer	6770 PARKER FARM DRIVE, SUITE 300, WILMINGTON NC 28405
Jeffrey W Lunsford	director	C/O WEBSIDESTORY, INC., 10182 TELESIS COURT, 6TH FLOOR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Pamela Kilday	director	6770 PARKER FARM DRIVE, SUITE 300, WILMINGTON, NC NC 28405
William J Ruh	director	PO BOX 1329, RANCHO SANTA FE CA 92067
Insight Sn Holdings 2, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036