NRP (Natural Resources Partners LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Natural Resources Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Natural Resources Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Natural Resources Partners LP Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Other Energy Sources » Natural Resources Partners LP (NYSE:NRP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1415 Louisiana Street, Suite 3325, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

https://www.nrplp.com

Natural Resources Partners LP is a diversified natural resource company. It is engaged in the business of owning, managing and leasing a diversified portfolio of mineral properties in the United States, including interests in coal, trona and soda ash, crude oil and natural gas, construction aggregates, frac sand, and other natural resources. The company leases coal reserves to experience mine operators under long-term leases that grant the operator the right to mine its coal reserves in exchange for royalty payments. The company operates in two reportable segments namely: Mineral Rights and Soda Ash. the majority of the revenue is generated from the Mineral Rights segment. Geographically, the business activity of the group functions through the United States.

Executives

Murphy Paul B Jr	director	OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL, INC., 11911 FM 529, HOUSTON TX 77041
Philip T Warman	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	123 ROBERT S. KERR AVENUE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102-6406
Alexander David Greene	director	3200 INDUSTRIAL PARK ROAD, VAN BUREN AR 72956
Galdino J. Claro	director	350 POPLAR CHURCH ROAD, CAMP HILL PA 17011
Perry W Donahoo	officer: CEO of VantaCore	1201 LOUISIANA, SUITE 3400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Jennifer Lauren Odinet	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1201 LOUISIANA, SUITE 3400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Kevin J Craig	officer: VP of Business Development	PO BOX 2827, HUNTINGTON WV 25727
Jasvinder Khaira	director	1201 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 3400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Premium Resources, Llc	10 percent owner	1415 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 2400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Jackson Leon George Iii	director	235 MARLBERRY CIRCLE, JUPITER FL 33458
David M Hartz	officer: VP, Oil and Gas	601 JEFFERSON STREET, SUITE 3600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Richard A Navarre	director	601 JEFFERSON STREET, SUITE 3600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Christopher Zolas	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	601 JEFFERSON STREET, SUITE 3600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Craig W Nunez	officer: CFO and Treasurer	1401 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 2400, HOUSTON TX 77010
Dennis F Coker	officer: Vice President - Aggregates	601 JEFFERSON STREET, SUITE 3600, HOUSTON TX 77002