What is NextTrip Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
NextTrip Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
NextTrip (NextTrip) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3900 Paseo del Sol, Santa Fe, NM, USA, 87507
Sigma Additive Solutions Inc is a leading provider of in-process quality assurance (IPQA) software to the additive manufacturing industry. Sigma specializes in the development and commercialization of real-time monitoring and analytics solutions known as PrintRite3D for 3D metal and polymer advanced manufacturing technologies. Its principal business activities include the development of its In-Process Quality Assurance (IPQA) suite of technologies and the commercialization of both its IPQA and materials-related suite of technologies, with its focus on three-dimensional printing (3DP) industry.
Executives
| Mark Ruport |
director, officer: Executive Chairman |
5575 MARK DABLING BLVD, SUITE 100, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80919 |
| Stephan Kuehr |
officer: GM of European Operations |
LEONHARDYWEG 30, BERLIN 2M 10121 |
| Jacob Brunsberg |
officer: Sr VP Product Mgt/Strat Rel |
3900 PASEO DEL SOL, SANTA FE NM 87507 |
| Carl I. Schwartz |
10 percent owner |
20155 N.E. 38TH COURT, UNIT 3104, AVENTURA FL 33180 |
| Frank Orzechowski |
officer: CFO, PFO and PAO |
3900 PASEO DEL SOL, SANTA FE NM 87507 |
| Darren Beckett |
officer: Vice President of Engineering |
3900 PASEO DEL SOL, SANTA FE NM 87507 |
| Kent J Summers |
director |
13 ONONDAGA LANE, MEDFIELD MA 02052 |
| Mark Cola |
director, officer: President, CEO and COO |
3900 PASEO DEL SOL, SANTA FE NM 87507 |
| Nannette Toups |
officer: CFO, PFO and PAO |
C/O SIGMA LABS, INC., 3900 PASEO DEL SOL, SANTA FE NM 87507 |
| Salvatore F Battinelli |
director |
5 CLIFTON AVENUE, MARBLEHEAD MA 01945 |
| Dennis Duitch |
director |
150 E PALMETTO PARK ROAD, SUITE 510, BOCA RATON FL 33432 |
| John Reynolds Rice |
director |
3900 PASEO DEL SOL, SANTA FE NM 87507 |
| Fisher Ronald Kenneth Jr |
officer: Vice President of Business Dev |
3900 PASEO DEL SOL, SANTA FE NM 87507 |
| Frank J Garofalo |
director |
3900 PASEO DEL SOL, SANTA FE NM 87507 |
| Amanda Cola |
officer: VP of Finance and Business Ops |
3900 PASEO DEL SOL, SANTA FE NM 87507 |
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