What is Northwest Bancshares Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Northwest Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Northwest Bancshares (Northwest Bancshares) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3 Easton Oval, Suite 500, Columbus, OH, USA, 43219
Northwest Bancshares Inc is a stockholding company for Northwest Bank. Northwest Bank is a stock savings bank and a community-oriented financial institution offering personal and banking business solutions, investment management, trust services and insurance products. It also offers consumer finance loans through a wholly-owned subsidiary. The bank's loan portfolio segment consists of personal banking and business banking loans. Personal banking includes residential mortgages, home equity loans, and other consumer loans. Business banking loans consist of commercial real estate loans and commercial loans. Net interest income is the company's primary contributor to revenue.
Executives
| Timothy B Fannin |
director |
100 LIBERTY STREET, WARREN PA 16365 |
| Devin T Cygnar |
officer: EVP, Chief Marketing Officer |
100 LIBERTY STREET, WARREN PA 16365 |
| Jeffrey J Maddigan |
officer: EVP, Corporate Treasurer |
3 EASTON OVAL, SUITE 500, COLUMBUS OH 43219 |
| Louis J Torchio |
officer: Sr. EVP Retail Lending |
100 LIBERTY STREET, WARREN PA 16365 |
| Carey A. Barnum |
officer: SVP, Chief Auditor |
3 EASTON OVAL, SUITE 500, COLUMBUS OH 43219 |
| Scott J Watson |
officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer |
100 LIBERTY STREET, WARREN PA 16365 |
| Jacques Marc Desmarteau |
officer: SEVP, Chief Comm. Banking Ofc. |
3 EASTON OVAL, SUITE 500, COLUMBUS OH 43219 |
| James M Colestro |
officer: EVP, Retail Lend & Bus Banking |
3 EASTON OVAL, SUITE 500, COLUMBUS OH 43219 |
| Amber Lee Williams |
director |
3 EASTON OVAL, SUITE 500, COLUMBUS OH 43219 |
| Mark A Paup |
director |
100 LIBERTY STREET, WARREN PA 16365 |
| Robert M Campana |
director |
NORTHWEST BANCSHARES, INC., 100 LIBERTY STREET, WARREN PA 16365 |
| David M Tullio |
director |
100 LIBERTY STREET, WARREN PA 16365 |
| Richard K Laws |
officer: EVP Chief Legal Counsel |
100 LIBERTY STREET, WARREN PA 16365 |
| Mark T. Reitzes |
officer: EVP Head of Commercial Lending |
3723 GLENMORE AVENUE, CHEVIOT OH 45211 |
| Gregory J. Betchkal |
officer: EVP, Chief Risk Officer |
3 EASTON OVAL, SUITE 500, COLUMBUS OH 43219 |
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