Network CN (Network CN) Predictability Rank

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What is Network CN Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Network CN Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Network CN (Network CN) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Network CN Inc (OTCPK:NWCN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Unit 705B, 9 Science Museum Road, New East Ocean Centre, 7th Floor, Tsim Sha Tsui, Kowloon, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.ncnmedia.com

Network CN Inc is a media and advertising company. The company is engaged in the provision of out-of-home advertising services in China. Its suite of services ranges from media planning to advertise operations such as a network of roadside light-emitting diode (LED) digital video panels, mega-size LED digital video billboards, and lightboxes in many cities. Its revenues consist of income from out-of-home advertising panels. The company generates majority of its revenue from United States.

Executives

Frederick Wong	director	C/O 21/F, ONE HARBOUR SQUARE, 181 HOI BUN RD, KWUN TONG, HONG KONG F4 00000
Wing Kong Wong	director	C/O 21/F, ONE HARBOUR SQUARE, 181 HOI BUN RD, KWUN TONG, HONG KONG F4 00000
Cheng Sze Ki Shirley	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O 21/F, ONE HARBOUR SQUARE, 181 HOI BUN RD, KWUN TONG, HONG KONG F4 00000
Charles Liu	director	C/O NO. SUITE 3908, SHELL TOWER, TIMES SQUARE, 1 MATHESON STREET, CAUSEWAY BAY, HK K3 00000
Serge Choukroun	director	C/O STE 3908, SHELL TOWER, TIMES SQUARE, 1 MATHESON STREET, CAUSEWAY BAY, HONG KONG K3 00000
Sino Portfolio International Ltd	10 percent owner	3104 -7, 31/F, CENTRAL PLAZA, 18 HARBOUR ROAD, HONG KONG K3 00000
Chen Yang Foo Oi	10 percent owner	3104 -7, 31/F, CENTRAL PLAZA, 18 HARBOUR ROAD, HONG KONG K3 00000
Jennifer Fu	officer: Interim CFO	21/F., CHINACHEM CENTURY TOWER, 178 GLOUCESTER ROAD, WANCHAI K3 00000
Gerald Godfrey	director	21/F., CHINACHEM CENTURY TOWER,, 178 GLOUCESTER ROAD, WANCHAI K3 00000
Ronald Lee	director	C/O NO. 21/F., CHINACHEM CENTURY TOWER, 178 GLOUCESTER ROAD, WANCHAI K3 00000
Chi Wah Leung	director	FLAT 2B, OLYMPAIN MANSION, 9 CONDUIT ROAD, MID-LEVEL K3 00000
Keywin Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	RM902, 9/FL., UNIVERSAL TRADE CENTRE,, 3 ARBUTHNOT ROAD, CENTRAL K3 00000
Tang Pui Chu	10 percent owner	FLAT 2B,OLYMPAIN MANSION, 9 CONDUIT ROAD, MID-LEVEL K3 00000
Gerd Jakob	director	21/F CHINACHEM CENTURY TOWER, 178 GLOUCESTER ROAD, HONG KONG F4 0000000
Ronglie Xu	director	1-1-301, HOUSING YARD, MINISTRY OF CONSTRUCTION, BEIJING F4 100037

Network CN (Network CN) Headlines

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