American Strategic Investment Co (American Strategic Investment Co) Predictability Rank

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What is American Strategic Investment Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Strategic Investment Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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American Strategic Investment Co (American Strategic Investment Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » American Strategic Investment Co (NYSE:NYC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

650 Fifth Avenue, 30th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019

Website

https://www.americanstrategicinvestment.com

American Strategic Investment Co is an externally managed company that currently owns a portfolio of commercial real estate located within the five boroughs of New York City, majorly Manhattan. The Company's real estate assets consist of office properties and certain real estate assets that accompany office properties, including retail spaces and amenities.

Executives

Nicholas S Schorsch	10 percent owner
Joseph Marnikovic	officer: Chief Financial Officer	650 FIFTH AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Michael Ray Anderson	officer: Chief Executive Officer	650 FIFTH AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Elizabeth K. Tuppeny	director	C/O AMERICAN REALTY CAPITAL PROPERTIES, 405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Louis P. Dipalma	director	650 FIFTH AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Christopher J. Masterson	officer: CFO and Treasurer	405 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Bellevue Capital Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	222 BELLEVUE AVENUE, NEWPORT RI 02840
New York City Special Ltd. Partnership, Llc	10 percent owner	222 BELLEVUE AVENUE, NEWPORT RI 02840
New York City Advisors, Llc	10 percent owner	222 BELLEVUE AVENUE, NEWPORT RI 02840
Ar Global Investments, Llc	10 percent owner	222 BELLEVUE AVENUE, NEWPORT RI 02840
American Realty Capital Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	222 BELLEVUE AVENUE, NEWPORT RI 02840
Lee M Elman	director	405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Abby M. Wenzel	director	C/O AMERICAN REALTY CAPITAL PROPERTIES, 405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Weil Edward M Jr.	director, officer: CEO, President and Secretary	C/O AMERICAN REALTY CAPITAL 405 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Katie P Kurtz	officer: CFO and Treasurer	405 PARK AVENUE, THIRD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022