Old Point Financial (Old Point Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Old Point Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Old Point Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Old Point Financial (Old Point Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Old Point Financial Corp (NAS:OPOF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

101 East Queen Street, Hampton, VA, USA, 23669

Website

https://www.oldpoint.com

Old Point Financial Corp functions in the financial services domain in the United States. As the holding company of The Bank and Trust, it is a nationally chartered trust and wealth management service, provider. Its suite of services includes commercial banking solutions such as loan, deposit and cash management, which are rendered through a chain of branches throughout the country. It operates through segments such as Bank, Wealth and Company.

Executives

Sarah B Golden	director	PO BOX 3392, HAMPTON VA 23663
Tom B Langley	director	PO BOX 3392, HAMPTON VA 23663
Michael A Glasser	director	PO BOX 3392, HAMPTON VA 23663
Joseph R Witt	director, other: EVP, Corporate Banking, OPNB	PO BOX 3392, HAMPTON VA 23663
Paul M Pickett	officer: Chief Financial Officer	PO BOX 3392, HAMPTON VA 23663
Elizabeth S Wash	director	1104 WORMLEY CREEK DRIVE, YORKTOWN VA 23692
Pl Capital Advisors, Llc	10 percent owner	750 ELEVENTH STREET SOUTH, SUITE 202, NAPLES FL 34102
John Cabot Ishon	director	PO BOX 3392, HAMPTON VA 23663
Thacker Clark Rebekah Ellen	director	PO BOX 3392, HAMPTON VA 23663
Adams Stephen Conway	director	PO BOX 3392, HAMPTON VA 23663
Shuford Robert F Jr	other: EVP/CHIEF OPERATING OFFR-OPNB	PO BOX 3392, HAMPTON VA 23663
Greene Dr Arthur D	director	PO BOX 3392, HAMPTON VA 23663
John W Palmer	10 percent owner	C/O SECURITY FINANCIAL BANCORP INC, 9321 WICKER AVE, ST JOHN IN 46373
Richard J Lashley	10 percent owner	C/O PL CAPITAL, LLC, 47 E. CHICAGO AVE., SUITE 328, NAPERVILLE IL 60540
Kauders A Eric Jr	officer: SVP/Trust	101 E QUEEN ST, HAMPTON VA 23669