What is Organogenesis Holdings Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Organogenesis Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Organogenesis Holdings (Organogenesis Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
85 Dan Road, Canton, MA, USA, 02021
Organogenesis Holdings Inc is a regenerative medicine company focused on the development, manufacture, and commercialization of product solutions for the Advanced wound care, surgical and sports medicine markets. Its product category includes Advanced Wound Care and Surgical and Sports Medicine. The company generates maximum revenue from Advanced Wound Care products. Some of its products include PuraPly Antimicrobial, Affinity, NuShield, Apligraf, Dermagraft and others.
Executives
| Albert Erani |
10 percent owner |
150 DAN ROAD, 150 DAN ROAD, CANTON MA 01002 |
| Michael W Katz |
10 percent owner |
|
| Arthur S Leibowitz |
director |
139 SOUNDVIEW DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050 |
| Michael Joseph Driscoll |
director |
C/O ORGANOGENESIS INC., 85 DAN ROAD, CANTON MA 02021 |
| Gary S. Gillheeney |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O ORGANOGENESIS INC., 85 DAN ROAD, CANTON MA 02021 |
| Gilberto Quintero |
director |
C/O ORGANOGENESIS INC., 85 DAN ROAD, CANTON MA 02021 |
| Michele Ilene Korfin |
director |
17 STATE STREET, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Antonio S. Montecalvo |
officer: VP Health Policy & Contracting |
C/O ORGANOGENESIS INC., 85 DAN ROAD, CANTON MA 02021 |
| Jon L Giacomin |
director |
7000 CARDINAL PLACE, DUBLIN OH 43017 |
| David Francisco |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O ORGANOGENESIS INC., 85 DAN ROAD, CANTON MA 02021 |
| Red Holdings, Llc |
10 percent owner |
C/O ORGANOGENESIS INC., 85 DAN ROAD, CANTON MA 02021 |
| Prathyusha Duraibabu |
director |
C/O SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 501 CANAL BLVD., RICHMOND CA 94804 |
| Glenn H Nussdorf |
director, 10 percent owner |
|
| Alan A. Ades |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O ORGANOGENESIS INC., 85 DAN ROAD, CANTON MA 02021 |
| Gn 2016 Organo 10-year Grat U/a/d September 30, 2016 |
10 percent owner |
C/O ORGANOGENESIS INC., 85 DAN ROAD, CANTON MA 02021 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
ORGO has been successfully added to your