What is Oramed Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Oramed Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Oramed Pharmaceuticals (Oramed Pharmaceuticals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1185 Avenue of the Americas, Third Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10036
Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc is a pharmaceutical company which is engaged in the research and development of pharmaceutical solutions, including an oral insulin capsule to be used for the treatment of individuals with diabetes, and the use of orally ingestible capsules or pills for delivery of other polypeptides. The ORMD-0801 is a proprietary product which is an orally ingestible insulin capsule for the treatment of diabetes. Its other product includes Oral Glucagon-like peptide-1 which is an incretin hormone, a type of gastrointestinal hormone that stimulates the secretion of insulin from the pancreas.
Executives
| Benjamin Shapiro |
director |
1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Nadav Kidron |
director, 10 percent owner |
142 W. 57TH ST., NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Yadin Rozov |
director |
9 TERRACE CIRCLE, ARMONK NY 10504 |
| Miriam Kidron |
director |
2 ELZA STREET, JERUSALEM L3 93706 |
| Michael Rabinowitz |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, THIRD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Arie Mayer |
director |
MORAN 16, KFAR SABA L3 4428890 |
| Netanel Derovan |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| David Silberman |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
20 MAMILLA AVENUE, JERUSALEM L3 9414904 |
| Kevin Rakin |
director |
36 CHURCH LANE, WESTPORT CT 06880 |
| Michael Rabinowitz |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
MAXIM GROUP, LLC, 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10174 |
| Leonard Sank |
director |
3 BLAIR ROAD, CAPE TOWN T3 8005 |
| Gao Xiaoming |
director |
11F. NO. 266 HANKOU ROAD, HUANGPU DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 2000001 |
| Avraham Gabay |
officer: CFO, Treasurer and Secretary |
2/4 HIGH-TECH PARK, P.O. BOX 39098, JERUSALEM L3 91390 |
| Mark Daniel Hasleton |
officer: VP Business Development |
13, HIBAT ZION, RAANANA, RAANANA L3 4338111 |
| Aviad Friedman |
director |
HADASSA 6, TEL AVIV L3 6451306 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
ORMP has been successfully added to your