Svenska Aerogel Holding AB (OSTO:AERO) Predictability Rank

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

OSTO:AERO Svenska Aerogel Holding AB OSTO:AERO
54 GF Score
Price kr0.80
GF Value kr1.17
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is Svenska Aerogel Holding AB Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Svenska Aerogel Holding AB Predictability Rank Related Terms

OSTO:AERO
54GF Score
Svenska Aerogel Holding AB OSTO:AERO
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Svenska Aerogel Holding AB Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Svenska Aerogel Holding AB (OSTO:AERO) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Svenska Aerogel Holding AB stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of kr0.80 is trading 31.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of kr1.17. GuruFocus considers Svenska Aerogel Holding AB to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for OSTO:AERO:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: kr1.17 vs. price of kr0.80 (31.6% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 54/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the OSTO:AERO stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Svenska Aerogel Holding AB Business Description

Address Strommavagen 2, Gavle, SWE, 803 09
Svenska Aerogel Holding AB develops and manufactures recyclable aerogel materials for industrial applications. It is focused on the development of Insulation, Color & Surface and Filtering of liquids and gases. The company has the following operating segments: Construction and Property: In the building and construction industry, there is a demand for greater energy efficiency; Process Industry: In the process industry, there is a need for process stability, safety, corrosion protection, and avoiding damage over time; and Advanced: The Advanced segment is dedicated to customers with technically advanced products spanning different industries where innovation and performance at the forefront is being utilized.
54GF Score

Get the complete analysis for OSTO:AERO

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

kr0.80
Price
kr1.17
GF Value