OXM (Oxford Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Oxford Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Oxford Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Oxford Industries Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Oxford Industries Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Oxford Industries Inc (NYSE:OXM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OXD:Germany OXD:Germany

Address

999 Peachtree Street, Northeast, Suite 688, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30309

Website

https://www.oxfordinc.com

Oxford Industries Inc is an apparel manufacturing company that designs, sources, markets, and distributes products under the brand name Tommy Bahama, and Lilly Pulitzer. Tommy Bahama designs, sources, markets, and distributes men's and women's sportswear and related products. Lilly Pulitzer designs, sources, markets, and distributes upscale collections of women's and women's dresses, sportswear, and related products. The company generates a majority of its revenue from the Tommy Bahama division.

Executives

Tracey Hernandez	officer: SVP & CHRO	999 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 688, ATLANTA GA 30309
Scott Grassmyer	officer: SVP and CFO	999 PEACHTREE ST NE, SUITE 688, ATLANTA GA 30309
Thomas E Campbell	officer: General Counsel	999 PEACHTREE ST NE, SUITE 688, ATLANTA GA 30309
Douglas B Wood	officer: CEO Tommy Bahama	999 PEACHTREE STREET, N.E., SUITE 688, ATLANTA GA 30309
Dennis M Love	director	TEN PEACHTREE PLACE, DEPT. 1466, ATLANTA GA 30309
Chubb Thomas Caldecot Iii	director, officer: CEO and PRESIDENT	999 PEACHTREE ST NE, SUITE 688, ATLANTA GA 30309
Stephen S Lanier	director	999 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, SUITE 688, ATLANTA GA 30309
Carol B Yancey	director	2999 CIRCLE 75 PKWY, ATLANTA GA 30339
Robert S. Trauber	officer: CEO Johnny Was	999 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 688, ATLANTA GA 30309
Howard James Wesley Jr	officer: PRESIDENT, LANIER CLOTHES	999 PEACHTREE ST NE, SUITE 688, ATLANTA GA 30309
John R Holder	director	999 PEACHTREE ST NE, SUITE 688, ATLANTA GA 30309
Milford W Mcguirt	director	3400 CUMBERLAND BOULEVARD, ATLANTA GA 30339
Clyde C Tuggle	director
Suraj A Palakshappa	officer: General Counsel	999 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 688, ATLANTA GA 30309
Virginia A Hepner	director	415 EAST PACES FERRY ROAD, SUITE 200, ATLANTA GA 30305