What is Palisade Bio Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Palisade Bio Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Palisade Bio (Palisade Bio) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
5800 Armada Drive, Suite 2A, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92008
Palisade Bio Inc is a clinical-stage biopharma company. It is advancing oral therapies that help patients with acute and chronic gastrointestinal complications stemming from post-operative digestive enzyme damage. Palisade Bio's innovative lead asset, LB1148, is a Phase 3-ready protease inhibitor with the potential to both reduce abdominal adhesions and help restore bowel function following surgery.
Executives
| Donald Allen Williams |
director |
C/O PRYOR CASHMAN LLP, 7 TIMES SQUARE, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| John David Finley |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O SENECA BIOPHARMA, INC., 20271 GOLDENROD LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
| Robert J. Trenschel |
director |
C/O SENECA BIOPHARMA, INC., 20271 GOLDENROD LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
| Mitchell Lawrence Jones |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
70 GALLOUPES POINT ROAD, SWAMPSCOTT MA 01907 |
| Robert Curtis Mcrae |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
675 S. SIERRA AVE,, UNIT 23, SOLANA BEACH CA 92075 |
| Thomas Hallam |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O SENECA BIOPHARMA, INC., 20271 GOLDENROD LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
| Michael John Dawson |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
C/O SENECA BIOPHARMA, INC., 20271 GOLDENROD LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
| Yuma Regional Medical Center |
10 percent owner |
2400 S AVENUE A, YUMA AZ 85364 |
| Stephanie Diaz |
director |
C/O SENECA BIOPHARMA, INC., 20271 GOLDENROD LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
| James R Neal |
director |
2910 SEVENTH STREET, BERKELEY CA 94710 |
| Mary Ann Gray |
director |
201 W 70TH ST, SUITE 23K, NEW YORK NY 10023 |
| David J Mazzo |
director |
110 ALLEN ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, BASKING RIDGE NJ 07920 |
| Binxian Wei |
director |
P.O. BOX 2231, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039 |
| Kenneth C Carter |
director, officer: Executive Chairman |
20358 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
| Cristina Csimma |
director |
14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, BLDG 1, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
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