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Palisade Bio (Palisade Bio) Predictability Rank


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What is Palisade Bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Palisade Bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Palisade Bio Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Palisade Bio (Palisade Bio) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
5800 Armada Drive, Suite 2A, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92008
Palisade Bio Inc is a clinical-stage biopharma company. It is advancing oral therapies that help patients with acute and chronic gastrointestinal complications stemming from post-operative digestive enzyme damage. Palisade Bio's innovative lead asset, LB1148, is a Phase 3-ready protease inhibitor with the potential to both reduce abdominal adhesions and help restore bowel function following surgery.
Executives
Donald Allen Williams director C/O PRYOR CASHMAN LLP, 7 TIMES SQUARE, NEW YORK NY 10036
John David Finley officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O SENECA BIOPHARMA, INC., 20271 GOLDENROD LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Robert J. Trenschel director C/O SENECA BIOPHARMA, INC., 20271 GOLDENROD LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Mitchell Lawrence Jones officer: Chief Medical Officer 70 GALLOUPES POINT ROAD, SWAMPSCOTT MA 01907
Robert Curtis Mcrae officer: Chief Operating Officer 675 S. SIERRA AVE,, UNIT 23, SOLANA BEACH CA 92075
Thomas Hallam director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O SENECA BIOPHARMA, INC., 20271 GOLDENROD LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Michael John Dawson officer: Chief Medical Officer C/O SENECA BIOPHARMA, INC., 20271 GOLDENROD LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Yuma Regional Medical Center 10 percent owner 2400 S AVENUE A, YUMA AZ 85364
Stephanie Diaz director C/O SENECA BIOPHARMA, INC., 20271 GOLDENROD LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
James R Neal director 2910 SEVENTH STREET, BERKELEY CA 94710
Mary Ann Gray director 201 W 70TH ST, SUITE 23K, NEW YORK NY 10023
David J Mazzo director 110 ALLEN ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, BASKING RIDGE NJ 07920
Binxian Wei director P.O. BOX 2231, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Kenneth C Carter director, officer: Executive Chairman 20358 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
Cristina Csimma director 14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, BLDG 1, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142

Palisade Bio (Palisade Bio) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Palisade Bio Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Listing Requirements

By Value_Insider Value_Insider 12-01-2022

Palisade Bio to Present at the Virtual Investor 2023 Companies to Watch Event

By Stock market mentor Stock market mentor 01-09-2023

Palisade Bio Promotes J.D. Finley to Chief Executive Officer

By sperokesalga sperokesalga 06-01-2023

Palisade Bio Announces Reverse Stock Split

By Value_Insider Value_Insider 11-15-2022