PEPG (PepGen) Predictability Rank

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What is PepGen Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PepGen Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PepGen Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PepGen Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » PepGen Inc (NAS:PEPG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

321 Harrison Avenue, 8th Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02118

Website

https://www.pepgen.com

PepGen Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company advancing the next generation of oligonucleotide therapeutics to transform the treatment of severe neuromuscular and neurologic diseases. The company has developed its Enhanced Delivery Oligonucleotide platform to improve the uptake and activity of conjugated oligonucleotide therapeutics. Its EDO peptides are engineered to optimize tissue penetration, cellular uptake, and nuclear delivery, and in preclinical studies, it is observed their ability to transport oligonucleotides into a broad range of target tissues, including smooth, skeletal, and cardiac muscle and the central nervous system. Its pipeline products are; PGN-EDO51, PGN-EDODM1, and others including PGN-EDO53 and PGN-EDO45.

Executives

Michelle L Mellion	officer: See Remarks	PEPGEN INC., 245 MAIN ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Niels Svenstrup	officer: See Remarks	PEPGEN INC., 245 MAIN ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
James G Mcarthur	director, officer: President and CEO	NIGHTSTAR THERAPEUTICS PLC, 203 CRESCENT STREET, SUITE 303, WALTHAM MA 02453
Jaya Goyal	officer: See Remarks	PEPGEN INC., 245 MAIN ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Habib J Dable	director	C/O ACCELERON PHARMA INC., 128 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
James E Flynn	10 percent owner, other: *Possible Member of 10% Group	780 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Oxford Science Enterprises Plc	10 percent owner	46 WOODSTOCK ROAD, OXFORD X0 OX2 6HT
Laurie Keating	director	300 THIRD STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Christopher Ashton	director	PEPGEN INC., 245 MAIN ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Deerfield Management Company, L.p. (series C)	10 percent owner, other: *Possible Member of 10% Group	345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Noel Donnelly	officer: Chief Financial Officer	PEPGEN INC., 245 MAIN ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Sonia Bracegirdle	officer: See Remarks	PEPGEN INC., 245 MAIN ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Deerfield Mgmt V, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: *Possible Member of 10% Group	345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Deerfield Private Design Fund V, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: *Possible Member of 10% Group	780 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017