PLAY (Dave & Buster's Entertainment) Predictability Rank

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What is Dave & Buster's Entertainment Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dave & Buster's Entertainment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Dave & Buster's Entertainment Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Dave & Buster's Entertainment Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc (NAS:PLAY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

9DB:Germany

Address

1221 Beltline Road, Suite 500, Coppell, TX, USA, 75019

Website

https://www.daveandbusters.com

Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc owns and operates nearly a hundred entertainment and dining establishments in the United States where customers can eat, drink, play games, and watch televised sports. Each store offers a full menu of entries and appetizers, a complete selection of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, and an extensive assortment of entertainment attractions centered around playing games and watching live sports and other televised events. It derives maximum revenue from Entertainment.

Executives

John Mulleady	officer: SVP, RE & Dev	DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 2481 MANANA DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75220
Kevin M Sheehan	director	DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT INC., 2481 MANANA DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75220
Michael J Griffith	director	DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 2481 MANANA DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75220
Hamish Dodds	director	C/O PIER 1 IMPORTS, INC., 100 PIER 1 PLACE, FT. WORTH TX 76102
Antonio Pineiro	officer: SVP, Chief Int'l Dev Ofc	1221 S. BELT LINE RD., SUITE 500, COOPELL TX 75220
Christopher Daniel Morris	officer: Chief Executive Officer
Steve Klohn	officer: SVP Chief Information Officer	1221 S. BELT LINE RD., SUITE 500, COPPELL TX 75019
Randall L Jones	officer: VP Accounting and Controller	1221 S. BELT LINE RD., SUITE 500, COPPELL TX 75019
Ashley Zickefoose	officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer	1221 S. BELT LINE RD., SUITE 500, COPPELL TX 75019
Hill Path Capital Partners Lp	other: SEE EXPLANATION OF RESPONSES	150 EAST 58TH STREET, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10155
Hill Path D Fund Lp	other: SEE FOOTNOTE 1	150 E 58TH STREET, FLOOR 32, NEW YORK NY 10155
Hp J Gp Llc	other: SEE EXPLANATION OF RESPONSES	150 EAST 58TH STREET, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Hill Path J Fund Lp	other: SEE EXPLANATION OF RESPONSES	150 EAST 58TH STREET, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Hp G Gp Llc	other: SEE EXPLANATION OF RESPONSES	150 EAST 58TH STREET, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Hill Path G Fund Lp	other: SEE EXPLANATION OF RESPONSES	150 EAST 58TH STREET, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019