Palantir Technologies (Palantir Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Palantir Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Palantir Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Palantir Technologies (Palantir Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Palantir Technologies Inc (NYSE:PLTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1PLTR:Italy PTX:Germany PTX:Germany PTX:Germany PTX:Germany P2LT34:Brazil PLTR:Austria

Address

1200 17th Street, Floor 15, Denver, CO, USA, 80202

Website

https://www.palantir.com

Palantir is an analytical software company that focuses on leveraging data to create efficiencies in its clients' organizations. The firm serves commercial and government clients via its Foundry and Gotham platforms, respectively. The Denver-based company was founded in 2003 and went public in 2020.

Executives

Alexandra W. Schiff	director	C/O PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1200 17TH STREET, FLOOR 15, DENVER CO 80202
Alexander D. Moore	director	C/O PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 1200 17TH STREET, FLOOR 15, DENVER CO 80202
Stat Lauren Elaina Friedman	director	C/O PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1200 17TH STREET, FLOOR 15, DENVER CO 80202
Heather A. Planishek	officer: See Remarks	C/O PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1200 17TH STREET, FLOOR 15, DENVER CO 80202
Stephen Andrew Cohen	director, officer: President and Secretary	C/O PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1200 17TH STREET, FLOOR 15, DENVER CO 80202
Ryan D. Taylor	officer: See Remarks	C/O PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1200 17TH STREET, FLOOR 15, DENVER CO 80202
David A. Glazer	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1200 17TH STREET, FLOOR 15, DENVER CO 80202
Shyam Sankar	officer: Chief Operating Officer & EVP	C/O PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1200 17TH STREET, FLOOR 15, DENVER CO 80202
Alexander C. Karp	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1200 17TH STREET, FLOOR 15, DENVER CO 80202
Eric H. Woersching	director	C/O PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1200 17TH STREET, FLOOR 15, DENVER CO 80202
Jeffrey Buckley	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1200 17TH STREET, FLOOR 15, DENVER CO 80202
Spencer M Rascoff	director	212 26TH STREET, UNIT 317, SANTA MONICA CA 90402
Peter Thiel	director, 10 percent owner	9200 SUNSET BOULEVARD, SUITE 1110, WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069
Matthew A. Long	officer: General Counsel	C/O PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC., 1555 BLAKE STREET, SUITE 250, DENVER CO 80202
Sompo Holdings, Inc.	10 percent owner	26-1, NISHI-SHINJUKU 1-CHOME, SHINJUKU-KU, TOKYO M0 160-8338