PRGS (Progress Software) Predictability Rank

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What is Progress Software Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Progress Software Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Progress Software Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Progress Software Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Progress Software Corp (NAS:PRGS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PGR:Germany

Address

15 Wayside Road, Suite 400, Burlington, MA, USA, 01803

Website

https://www.progress.com

Progress Software Corporation provides software operate in one operating segment: software products for the development, deployment, and management of responsible, AI-powered applications and digital experiences. Following are products: Chef, Corticon, Data Direct, Developer Tools, Flowmon, Kemp LoadMaster, MarkLogic, MOVEit, OpenEdge, Semaphore, ShareFile, Sitefinity, WhatsUp Gold. Geographical regions include United States, Canada, EMEA, Latin America, and Asia Pacific.

Executives

Domenic Lococo	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION, 14 OAK PARK DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Ian Pitt	officer: Chief Information Officer	C/O PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION, 14 OAK PARK DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Loren Jarrett	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION, 14 OAK PARK DR., BEDFORD MA 01730
Anthony Folger	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CARBONITE, INC., 177 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02115
Sundar Subramanian	officer: EVP/GM DevSecOps	C/O PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION, 14 OAK PARK DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Yufan Stephanie Wang	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION, 15 WAYSIDE ROAD, SUITE 400, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Yogesh K Gupta	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION, 15 WAYSIDE ROAD, SUITE 400, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Kathryn Kulikoski	officer: CHIEF PEOPLE OFFICER	C/O PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION, 14 OAK PARK DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
John Ainsworth	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION, 14 OAK PARK DR., BEDFORD MA 01730
David Krall	director	C/O AVID TECHNOLOGY INC, ONE PARK WEST, TEWKSBURY MA 01876
Charles Francis Kane	director	14 OAK PARK DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Jeremy Segal	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION, 14 OAK PARK DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Jennifer Ortiz	officer: EVP, Corporate Marketing	C/O PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION, 14 OAK PARK DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
John R Egan	director	176 SOUTH ST., HOPKINTON MA 01748
Gary Quinn	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O COMPUTER ASSOCIATES INTER INC, ONE COMPUTER ASSOC PLAZA, ISLANDIA NY 11749