PTLO (Portillos) Predictability Rank

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What is Portillos Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Portillos Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Portillos Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Portillos Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Portillos Inc (NAS:PTLO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2001 Spring Road, Suite 400, Oak Brook, IL, USA, 60523

Website

https://www.portillos.com

Portillos Inc serves the Chicago street food industry through high-energy and multichannel restaurants designed to ignite the senses and create memorable dining experiences. It owns and operates fast-casual restaurants in the United States, along with two food production commissaries in Illinois. Its menu includes hot dogs, beef and sausage sandwiches, sandwiches and ribs, salads, burgers, chicken, Barnelli's pasta, sides and soup, and desserts and shakes.

Executives

Nicholas Anthony Scarpino	officer: See Remarks	C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Michael Osanloo	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Derrick Lee Pratt	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Kelly M Kaiser	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	2001 SPRING RD, STE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Cook George Richard Iii	officer: Senior VP, Technology	C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Jill Francine Waite	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Michael K Ellis	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O EINSTEIN NOAH RESTAURANT GROUP, INC., 555 ZANG STREET, SUITE 300, LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Paulette R. Dodson	director	PETSMART, INC, 19601 N 27TH AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Berkshire Fund Viii-a, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O EIGHTH BERKSHIRE ASSOCIATES LLC, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Eighth Berkshire Associates Llc	director, 10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116-5009
Joshua Adam Lutzker	director	C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Michelle Greig Hook	officer: CFO & Treasurer	C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Sherri Lynn Abruscato	officer: See Remarks	C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Susan Beth Shelton	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O PORTILLO'S HOT DOGS, LLC, 2001 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 400, OAK BROOK IL 60523-1903
Berkshire Fund Viii, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O EIGHTH BERKSHIRE ASSOCIATES LLC, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116