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Providence & Worcester Railroad Co (Providence & Worcester Railroad Co) Predictability Rank


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What is Providence & Worcester Railroad Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Providence & Worcester Railroad Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Providence & Worcester Railroad Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Providence & Worcester Railroad Co (Providence & Worcester Railroad Co) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Providence & Worcester Railroad Co commenced its operations in 1973. The Company is a short-line freight railroad as defined by the American Association of Railroads operating in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut and New York. The Company is the only interstate freight carrier serving the State of Rhode Island. The Company services the international double-stack intermodal terminal facility in New England in Worcester, Massachusetts, a strategic location for regional transportation and distribution enterprises. The Company transports commodities for its customers, including automobiles, construction aggregates, iron and steel products, chemicals and plastics, lumber, scrap metals, plastic resins, cement, coal, construction and demolition debris, and processed foods and edible foodstuffs, such as corn syrup and vegetable oils. Its customers include Exxon Mobil Corporation, Ford Motor Company, Frito-Lay, Inc., Global LLP, GDF SUEZ Energy North America, International Paper Company, Lehigh Cement, Cargill, Inc., Northeast Utilities, Nucor Steel, Rawson Materials, Renewable Products Marketing Group, Subaru of New England, Tilcon Connecticut, Inc. and Toray Plastics, Inc. The Company competes with other carriers in the siting of new rail-oriented businesses in the region. The Company also competes with other modes of transportation, particularly long-haul trucking companies, for the transportation of commodities, and ocean-going vessels for the transportation of containers. The Company is subject to governmental regulation by the STB, the FRA, the Transportation Security Administration and other federal, state and local regulatory authorities with respect to certain rates and railroad operations, as well as a variety of health, safety, labor, environmental and other matters.
Executives
Daniel T Noreck officer: Treasurer and CFO 75 HAMMOND STREET, WORCESTER MA 01610
P Scott Conti director, officer: President and COO 75 HAMMOND STREET, WORCESTER MA 01610
Robert H Eder director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer 5 STEEPLE STREET, #303, PROVIDENCE RI 02903
Linda Eder 10 percent owner 100 DEXTER ROAD, EAST PROVIDENCE RI 02914
Craig M Scott director 75 HAMMOND STREET, WORCESTER MA 01610
Stephen J Carlotti 10 percent owner 1500 FLEET CENTER, PROVIDENCE RI 02903
Merrill W Sherman director 131 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116

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