PYYX (Pyxus International) Predictability Rank

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What is Pyxus International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pyxus International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pyxus International Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Tobacco Products » Pyxus International Inc (OTCPK:PYYX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6001 Hospitality Court, Suite 100, Morrisville, NC, USA, 27560-2009

Website

https://www.pyxus.com

Pyxus International Inc is a world-wide agricultural company delivering value-added products and services to businesses, customers, and consumers. The company and its subsidiaries and affiliates are providers of responsibly sourced, independently verified, sustainable and traceable agricultural and consumer-driven products and ingredients. The company's products are categorized under leaf, legal cannabis, industrial hemp and CBD, and e-liquids. Its segment comprises Leaf and Other. The company has a presence in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Executives

Glendon Opportunities Fund Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	1620 26TH STREET, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Scott Burmeister	officer: EVP Chief Operating Officer	6001 HOSPITALITY COURT, SUITE 100, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Dustin Styons	officer: EVP, Business Strategy & Sales	6001 HOSPITALITY COURT, SUITE 100, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
John Alphin	director	8001 AERIAL CENTER PARKWAY, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Bartels Patrick J Jr	director	C/O WCI COMMUNITIES, INC., 24301 WALDEN CENTER DRIVE, BONITA SPRINGS FL 34134
Fernanda Goncalves	officer: SVP Chief HR Officer	8001 AERIAL CENTER PARKWAY, MORRISVILLE NC 25760
Jamie J Ashton	director	8001 AERIAL CENTER PKWY, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Flavia Landsberg	officer: EVP Chief Financial Officer	8001 AERIAL CENTER PARKWAY, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Tomas Grigera	officer: VP Corporate Treasurer	8001 AERIAL CENTER PARKWAY, ALLIANCE ONE, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Cynthia P Moehring	director	8001 AERIAL CENTER PARKWAY, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Richard Topping	director	8001 AERIAL CENTER PARKWAY, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Robert David George	director	108000 NE STREET SUITE 600, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Mdra Gp Lp	director, 10 percent owner, See Remarks	C/O MONARCH ALTERNATIVE CAPITAL LP, 535 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Holly Kim Olson	director	C/O GLENDON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT L.P., 2425 OLYMPIC BLVD., SUITE 500E, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Patrick B Fallon	director	C/O MONARCH ALTERNATIVE CAPITAL LP, 535 MADISON AVENUE FLOOR 22, NEW YORK NY 10022