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REVB (Revelation Biosciences) Predictability Rank


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What is Revelation Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Revelation Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Revelation Biosciences Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Revelation Biosciences's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Revelation Biosciences Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4660 La Jolla Village Drive, Suite 100, San Diego, CA, USA, 92122
Revelation Biosciences Inc is a clinical-stage life science company that is focused on rebalancing inflammation to optimize health using its proprietary formulation Gemini. It is developing a pipeline of potential high-value products based on Gemini. Gemini is Revelation's proprietary formulation of phosphorylated hexaacyl disaccharide (PHAD) an established TLR4 agonist that can stimulate the human body's innate immune response to prevent and treat disease. The product candidates are developed are based on Gemini formulation of PHAD. Gemini-based programs consist of: Gemini-SSI developed for the prevention of surgical site infection (SSI); Gemini-AKI developed for the prevention of acute kidney injury (AKI); and Gemini-CKD for the treatment of chronic kidney disease (CKD).
Executives
George F Tidmarsh director, 10 percent owner
Lakhmir S Chawla director 1960 KIRBY ROAD, MCLEAN VA 22101
Axa Im Prime Impact Gp S.a.r.l other: Former 10% owner 2-4, RUE EUGENE RUPPERT, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2453
Axa Im Prime Impact Master Fund I Sca Sicav-raif other: Former 10% Owner 2-4 RUE EUGENE RUPPERT, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2453
Axa Investment Managers S.a. other: Former 10% owner 6 PLACE DE LA PYRAMIDE, TOUR MAJUNGA, PUTEAUX I0 92800
Axa Investment Managers Paris other: Former 10% owner 6 PLACE DE LA PYRAMIDE, PUTEAUX I0 92800
Axa Investment Managers Uk Ltd other: Former 10% owner 22 BISHOPGATE, LONDON X0 EC2M 3XJ
S.a. Axa other: Former 10% owner 25 AVENUE MATIGNON, PARIS I0 75008
Jess Roper director 5555 OBERLIN DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
James Rolke director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 10182 TELESIS COURT, 6TH FLOOR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Curt H Labelle director C/O INVESTOR GROWTH CAPITAL, INC., 630 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 1965, NEW YORK NY 10011
Jennifer Carver director 725 NEWPORT STREET, DENVER CO 80220
Zygmont Chester Stanley Iii officer: Chief Financial Officer 3322 MILLIKIN AVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Lawrence Feis 10 percent owner 190 EAST WALTON PLACE, UNIT 603, CHICAGO IL 60611
Feis Equities Llc 10 percent owner 20 NORTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 2115, CHICAGO IL 60606