RIDYF (Ridley) Predictability Rank


RIDYF Ridley Corp Ltd RIDYF
78 GF Score
Price $1.80
GF Value $3.20
Valuation Significantly Undervalued
! 1 Warning Sign
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What is Ridley Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ridley Predictability Rank Related Terms

RIDYF
78GF Score
Ridley Corp Ltd RIDYF
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Ridley Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Ridley (RIDYF) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ridley stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $1.80 is trading 43.8% below its estimated GF Value™ of $3.20. GuruFocus considers Ridley to be Significantly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for RIDYF:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: $3.20 vs. price of $1.80 (43.8% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 78/100 with 1 warning sign

No single metric tells the full story. See the RIDYF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Ridley Business Description

Other Exchanges RIC:Australia
Address 525 Collins Street, Level 9, South Tower Rialto, 0, Melbourne, VIC, AUS, 3000
Ridley Corp Ltd engages in the production and marketing of stock feed and animal feed supplements. The company's operating segments include Bulk Stockfeeds and Packaged Feeds and Ingredients. The Bulk Stockfeeds segment comprises the Group's animal nutrition stockfeed solutions delivered in bulk. This includes monogastric and ruminant feeds, such as pellets, meals, concentrates, and premixes for poultry, pigs, dairy cattle, beef cattle, and sheep. Packaged Feeds and Ingredients segment comprises the Group's animal nutrition feed and ingredient solutions delivered in packaged form. This includes bagged poultry, dairy, dog, horse, and lifestyle animal feeds, as well as block and loose lick supplements; and aquafeed. It generates the majority of its revenue from the Bulk Stockfeeds segment.
78GF Score

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Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$1.80
Price
$3.20
GF Value