RIOT (Riot Platforms) Predictability Rank

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What is Riot Platforms Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Riot Platforms Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Riot Platforms Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Riot Platforms Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Riot Platforms Inc (NAS:RIOT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RIOT:Mexico AP4N:Germany AP4N:Germany

Address

3855 Ambrosia Street, Suite 301, Castle Rock, CO, USA, 80109

Website

https://www.riotplatforms.com

Riot Platforms Inc is a vertically integrated Bitcoin mining company focused on building, supporting, and operating blockchain technologies. The company's segments include Bitcoin Mining; Data Center Hosting and Engineering. It generates maximum revenue from the Bitcoin Mining segment which generates revenue from the Bitcoin the company earns through its mining activities.

Executives

Hannah Cho	director	C/O RIOT PLATFORMS, INC., 3855 AMBROSIA STREET, SUITE 301, CASTLE ROCK CO 80109
Lance Varro D'ambrosio	director	C/O RIOT PLATFORMS, INC., 3855 AMBROSIA STREET, SUITE 301, CASTLE ROCK CO 80109
Hubert Marleau	director	C/O RIOT PLATFORMS, INC., 3855 AMBROSIA STREET, SUITE 301, CASTLE ROCK CO 80109
Ryan D. Werner	officer: SVP & CAO (See Remarks)	C/O RIOT PLATFORMS, INC., 3855 AMBROSIA STREET, SUITE 301, CASTLE ROCK CO 80109
William Richard Jackman	officer: General Counsel	C/O RIOT PLATFORMS, INC., 3855 AMBROSIA STREET, SUITE 301, CASTLE ROCK CO 80109
Jason Chung	officer: EVP, CORP DEV (SEE REMARKS)	C/O RIOT PLATFORMS, INC., 3855 AMBROSIA STREET, SUITE 301, CASTLE ROCK CO 80109
Yi Soo Il Benjamin	director	C/O RIOT PLATFORMS, INC., 3855 AMBROSIA STREET, SUITE 301, CASTLE ROCK CO 80109
Jason Les	director	C/O RIOT PLATFORMS, INC., 3855 AMBROSIA STREET, SUITE 301, CASTLE ROCK CO 80109
Yee Colin M.	officer: CFO	C/O RIOT PLATFORMS, INC., 3855 AMBROSIA STREET, SUITE 301, CASTLE ROCK CO 80109
Chad Everett Harris	officer: Subsidiary Officer See Remarks	C/O RIOT PLATFORMS, INC., 3855 AMBROSIA STREET, SUITE 301, CASTLE ROCK CO 80109
Megan M. Brooks	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O RIOT BLOCKCHAIN, INC., 3855 AMBROSIA STREET, STE 301, CASTLE ROCK CO 80109
Jefferey Mcgonegal	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3855 AMBROSIA STREET, STE.301, CASTLE ROCK CO 80109
Data Ag Northern	10 percent owner	AN DER WELLE 3, FRANKFURT AM MAIN 2M 60322
Lyle Joseph Theriot	officer: Subsidiary Officer See Remarks	C/O RIOT BLOCKCHAIN, INC., 3855 AMBROSIA STREET, STE. 301, CASTLE ROCK CO 80109
Remo Mancini	director	6 LAIRD AVENUE SOUTH, AMHERSTBURG A6 N9V 1X5