RLBD (Real Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is Real Brands Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Real Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Real Brands Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Real Brands Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Real Brands Inc (OTCPK:RLBD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

12 Humbert Street, North Providence, RI, USA, 02991

Website

https://www.realbrandsusa.com

Real Brands Inc is a publicly traded, vertically integrated, early entrant in the hemp-derived cannabinol (CBD) market that specializes in hemp CBD oil/isolate extraction, wholesaling of CBD oils and isolate, manufacturing, production, and sales of hemp-derived CBD consumer, celebrity brands, and white label products.

Executives

James Wells Dobbins	director	5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229
Thomas Kidrin	officer: President and CEO	11 ROYAL ROAD, BROOKLINE MA 02445
Christopher John Ryan	officer: CFO	11 ROYAL RD, BROOKLINE MA 02445
Leonard Toboroff	director	39 N MOORE ST, STE 6B, NEW YORK NY 10013
Peter N Christos	director
Turning Point Brands, Inc.	10 percent owner	5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229
Brett S. Spitalny	officer: Chief Operating Officer	2 SOUTH UNIVERSITY DRIVE, SUITE 220, PLANTATION FL 33324
Jerry Pearring	director, officer: President & CEO	2 SOUTH UNIVERSITY DRIVE, SUITE 220, PLANTATION FL 33324
Ross E Silvey	director	7633 EAST 63RD PLACE, #220, TULSA OK 74133
Terry J Turner	director	7633 EAST 63RD PLACE, #220, TULSA OK 74133
Bernie Gurr	officer: Chief Financial Officer	32751 MATTHEW DRIVE, DANA POINT CA 92629
Bruce Macgregor	officer: Chief Executive Officer, Pres.	5092 RHOADS AVENUE UNIT A, SANTA BARBARA CA 93111
Ken Wiedrich	director	43180 BUSINESS PARK DRIVE SUITE 202, TEMECULA CA 92590