ROIV (Roivant Sciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Roivant Sciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Roivant Sciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Roivant Sciences Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Roivant Sciences Ltd (NAS:ROIV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

87S:Germany

Address

50 Broadway, 7th Floor, London, GBR, SW1H 0BD

Website

https://www.roivant.com

Roivant Sciences Ltd is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to improving the delivery of healthcare to patients. It also incubates discovery-stage companies and health technology startups complementary to its biopharmaceutical business. Its drug candidate VTAMA (tapinarof) is a treatment of plaque psoriasis in adult patients and is in its commercial stage. The other drug candidates in their different stages of development are; Batoclimab, IMVT-1402, Brepocitinib, Namilumab, and others.

Executives

Eric Venker	officer: President & COO	C/O ROIVANT SCIENCES, INC., 320 WEST 37TH STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Vivek Ramaswamy	director	C/O ONCORE BIOPHARMA, INC., 3805 OLD EASTON ROAD, DOYLESTOWN PA 18902
Rakhi Kumar	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O NEUROPACE INC, 455 N BERNARDO AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Mayukh Sukhatme	officer: See Remarks	C/O UOVANT SCIENCES, INC., 5151 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, SUITE 250, IRVINE CA 92617
Daniel Allen Gold	director	6720 VIA AUSTI PARKWAY, SUITE 450, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Qvt Financial Lp	10 percent owner, other: Director by Deputization	888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Keith S Manchester	director	C/O ROIVANT SCIENCES LTD., 11-12 ST. JAMES'S SQUARE SUITE 1, 3RD FL, LONDON X0 SW1Y 4L
Matthew Gline	director, officer: CEO	C/O UROVANT SCIENCES, INC., 5151 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, SUITE 250, IRVINE CA 92617
Svf Investments (uk) Ltd	10 percent owner	69 GROSVENOR STREET, LONDON X0 W1K3JP
Viking Global Performance Llc	10 percent owner	55 RAILROAD AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Sumitomo Chemical Co., Ltd.	10 percent owner	7-1, NIHONBASHI 2-CHOME, CHUO-KU, TOKYO M0 103-6020
Viking Global Opportunities Parent Gp Llc	10 percent owner	600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901
Viking Global Investors Lp	10 percent owner	600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901
Softbank Vision Fund L.p.	10 percent owner	AZTEC GROUP HOUSE, 11-15 SEATON PLACE, ST HELIER Y9 JE4 0QH
Meghan Fitzgerald	director	C/O VION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 4 SCIENCE PARK, NEW HAVEN CT 06511