RSSS (Research Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is Research Solutions Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Research Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Research Solutions Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Research Solutions Inc (NAS:RSSS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

61I:Germany

Address

10624 South Eastern Avenue, Suite A-614, Henderson, NV, USA, 89052

Website

https://www.researchsolutions.com

Research Solutions Inc is a holding company. The company provides a cloud-based SaaS research intelligence platform consisting of proprietary software and Internet-based interfaces. Its platform also allows customers to find and download digital versions of STM articles. Platforms and Transactions are packaged as a single solution that enables life science and other research-intensive organizations to speed up research and development activities. The company platform allows customers to initiate orders, manage transactions, automate authentication, obtain reports, and connect seamlessly to corporate intranets.

Executives

Peter Derycz	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO & President	207 10TH STREET, SANTA MONICA CA 90402
Bristol Capital Advisors, Llc	other: See Explanation of Responses	555 MARIN STREET, SUITE 140, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91360
Bristol Investment Fund Ltd	other: See Explanation of Responses	89 NEXUS WAY, CAMANA BAY, PO BOX 311063, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1205
Paul Kessler	other: See Explanation of Responses	555 MARIN STREET, SUITE 140, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91360
Janice M Peterson	other: See Explanation of Responses	10990 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, STE 1410, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Roy W Olivier	director	11425 WEST LAKE PARK DRIVE, SUITE 900, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Barbara J. Cooperman	director	10624 S. EASTERN AVENUE, SUITE A-614, HENDERSON NV 89052
Eugene Vlad Robin	director	2508 FISK LANE, REDONDO BEACH CA 90278
William Nurthen	officer: CFO & Secretary	500 N. DEARBORN, SUITE 1200, CHICAGO IL 60610
Shane Alan Hunt	officer: Chief Customer Success Officer	C/O RESEARCH SOLUTIONS, INC., 10624 S. EASTERN AVE, SUITE A-614, HENDERSON NV 89052
Alan Louis Urban	officer: CFO & Secretary	1524 CLOVERFIELD BOULEVARD, SUITE E, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Marc Nissan	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O RESEARCH SOLUTIONS, INC., 15821 VENTURA BLVD. SUITE 165, ENCINO CA 91436
12 West Capital Management Lp	10 percent owner	475 TENTH AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Van Der Heijden Michiel	officer: Chief Product Officer	10624 S. EASTERN AVE.., STE, A-614, HENDERSON NV 89052
Erkel Rogier Van	officer: Chief Sales Officer	C/O RESEARCH SOLUTIONS, INC., 15821 VENTURA BLVD. SUITE 165, ENCINO CA 91436