Al Rajhi Bank (SAU:1120) Predictability Rank


SAU:1120 Al Rajhi Bank SAU:1120
70 GF Score
Price ﷼66.35
GF Value ﷼79.21
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is Al Rajhi Bank Predictability Rank?

3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Al Rajhi Bank Predictability Rank Related Terms

SAU:1120
70GF Score
Al Rajhi Bank SAU:1120
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Al Rajhi Bank Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Al Rajhi Bank (SAU:1120) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Al Rajhi Bank stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of ﷼66.35 is trading 16.2% below its estimated GF Value™ of ﷼79.21. GuruFocus considers Al Rajhi Bank to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for SAU:1120:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: ﷼79.21 vs. price of ﷼66.35 (16.2% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 70/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the SAU:1120 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Al Rajhi Bank Business Description

Address 8467 King Fahd Road, Unit No. 1, Al Muruj District, Riyadh, SAU, 12263 - 2743
Al Rajhi Bank is an Islamic bank with a network of over 500 branches. Its segments include the Retail segment which includes accepting individual customer deposits, providing credit facilities, customer debit current accounts, fees from banking services, and remittance business; the Corporate segment which incorporates deposits of VIP, corporate customer deposits, credit facilities, and debit current accounts, Treasury segment through which it offers treasury services, Murabaha with SAMA and international Mutajara portfolio; and Investment services and brokerage and other that incorporates investments of individuals and corporate in mutual funds, local and international share trading services and investment portfolios.
70GF Score

Get the complete analysis for SAU:1120

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

﷼66.35
Price
﷼79.21
GF Value