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SCYX (SCYNEXIS) Predictability Rank


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What is SCYNEXIS Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


SCYNEXIS Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

SCYNEXIS Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of SCYNEXIS's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


SCYNEXIS Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1 Evertrust Plaza, 13th Floor, Jersey City, NJ, USA, 07302 - 6548
SCYNEXIS Inc is a drug development company that focuses on the development and commercialization of novel anti-infectives to address unmet therapeutic needs. It is engaged in developing a product candidate, ibrexafungerp which is a novel oral and intravenous (IV) drug for the treatment of several fungal infections, including serious and life-threatening invasive fungal infections. The ibrexafungerp is a novel and structurally distinct triterpenoid glucan synthase inhibitor that is effective in vitro and in vivo against broad range of Candida and Aspergillus species, including drug-resistant strains as well as Pneumocystis, Coccidioides, Histoplasma and Blastomyces genera and some common mucorales species.
Executives
Gonzalez David Angulo officer: Chief Medical Officer C/O SCYNEXIS, INC., 3501 C TRICENTER BOULEVARD, DURHAM NC 27713
David C Hastings director C/O ARBUTUS BIOPHARMA, 100-8900 GLENLYON PARKWAY, BURNABY A1 V5J 5J8
Brian Philippe Tinmouth director 1 EVERTRUST PLAZA, 13TH FLOOR, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302-6548
Guy Macdonald director C/O IDENIX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 60 HAMPSHIRE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Steven C Gilman director 110 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Armando Anido director 80 W. LANCASTER AVENUE, SUITE 300, DEVON PA 19333
Ann Hanham director ONE EMBRACADERO CTR, STE 2700, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Ivor Macleod officer: Chief Financial Officer 3201 CARNEGIE AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115-2634
Scott Sukenick officer: General Counsel 101 HUDSON STREET, SUITE 3610, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Marco Taglietti director C/O FOREST LABORATORIES, INC., 909 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Lawrence R Hoffman officer: Interim CFO C/O COVALENT GROUP, INC., 1275 DRUMMERS LANE, SUITE 100, WAYNE PA 19087
Christine Coyne officer: Chief Commercial Officer 1 EVERTRUST PLAZA, 13TH FLOOR, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302-6548
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd 10 percent owner C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Joseph Edelman 10 percent owner C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Eric Francois officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O SCYNEXIS, INC., 3501 C TRICENTER BOULEVARD, DURHAM NC 27713