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SED International Holdings (SED International Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is SED International Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SED International Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

SED International Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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SED International Holdings (SED International Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » SED International Holdings Inc (OTCPK:SEDN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NAMBF WSTG CNXN SCSC ATAZF TECD
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3505 Newpoint Place, Suite 450, Lawrenceville, GA, USA, 30043
Website
http://www.sedonline.com
SED International Holdings Inc is engaged in the wholesale distribution of information technology, technology products and solutions, and consumer electronic products in the United States, Colombia and other markets in Latin America. The company operates primarily in the IT and accessories industry distributes hardware, software, accessories and related services.
Executives
Hagan John Ronald Jr officer: Interim CEO 8100 SW 10TH STREET, SUITE 4000, PLANTATION FL 33324
Jack H Jacobs director 101 OAKS ROAD, MILLINGTON NJ 07946
Dennis L Chandler director 300 TOWER PARKWAY, LINCOLNSHIRE IL 60069
John D Abouchar director 27271 LAS RAMBLAS, STE. 200 MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
Arthur L Goldberg director C/O MILESTONE SCIENTIFIC INC., 220 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Hummingbird Value Fund Lp other: See Footnotes 145 E. 57TH STREET, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Hummingbird Management Llc other: See Footnotes 145 E. 57TH STREET, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Paul D Sonkin other: See Footnotes 145 E. 57TH STREET, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Hummingbird Microcap Value Fund Lp other: See Footnotes 145 E. 57TH STREET, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Hummingbird Capital Llc other: See Footnotes 145 E. 57TH STREET, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Tarsier Nanocap Value Fund, Lp other: See Footnotes C/O HUMMINGBIRD MANAGEMENT, LLC, 145 E. 57TH STREET, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022

SED International Holdings (SED International Holdings) Headlines

From GuruFocus

SED International: Concerns over Margins and Leverage

By Mark Lin Mark Lin • 12-18-2012