Sight Sciences (Sight Sciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Sight Sciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sight Sciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sight Sciences (Sight Sciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Sight Sciences Inc (NAS:SGHT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4040 Campbell Avenue, Suite 100, Menlo Park, CA, USA, 94025

Website

https://www.sightsciences.com

Sight Sciences Inc is an ophthalmic medical device company focused on the development and commercialization of surgical and nonsurgical technologies for the treatment of prevalent eye diseases. Its Surgical Glaucoma segment's product portfolio features the OMNI Surgical System, a device that facilitates the performance of both canaloplasty and trabeculotomy with a single device and single corneal incision to reduce intraocular pressure in adult patients with primary open-angle glaucoma. The company's Dry Eye segment's product portfolio consists of the TearCare System for ophthalmologists and optometrists. It derives key revenue from the Surgical Glaucoma segment.

Executives

Jeremy B. Hayden	officer: Chief Legal Officer	2 MUSICK, 2 MUSICK, IRVINE CA 92618
Sam Boong Park	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O SIGHT SCIENCES, INC., 4040 CAMPBELL AVENUE, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Paul Badawi	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	C/O SIGHT SCIENCES, INC., 4040 CAMPBELL AVENUE, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
David Badawi	director, officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O SIGHT SCIENCES, INC., 4040 CAMPBELL AVENUE, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
D1 Capital Partners L.p.	10 percent owner	9 WEST 57TH STREET, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Staffan Encrantz	director	C/O SIGHT SCIENCES, INC., 4040 CAMPBELL AVENUE, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Matthew Link	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	7475 LUSK BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Catherine Mazzacco	director	C/O KRYSTAL BIOTECH, INC., 2100 WHARTON STREET, SUITE 701, PITTSBURGH PA 15203
Alison Bauerlein	officer: See remarks	326 BOLLAY DRIVE, GOLETA CA 93117
James Rodberg	officer: See Remarks	C/O SIGHT SCIENCES, INC., 4040 CAMPBELL AVE., SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Tamara Fountain	director	C/O RXSIGHT, INC., 100 COLUMBIA, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Brenda Jane Larsen-becker	director	C/O SIGHT SCIENCES, INC., 3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BUILDING 3, STE 105, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Jesse Selnick	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SIGHT SCIENCES, INC., 4040 CAMPBELL AVENUE, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Daniel S. Sundheim	10 percent owner	C/O D1 CAPITAL PARTNERS L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Erica J. Rogers	director	C/O SILK ROAD MEDICAL, INC., 1213 INNSBRUCK DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089