SELECT * FROM `stock_list` where symbol='9CI' AND exchange = 'SGX' ORDER BY delisted ASC limit 0,1
SELECT * FROM `stock_list` where symbol='9CI' AND exchange = 'SGX' ORDER BY delisted ASC limit 0,1
SELECT * FROM `stock_list` WHERE `symbol` = "9CI" and stock_list.exchange IN (SELECT exchange FROM gurufocu_main.stock_list_exchanges where country='USA' and active=1) ORDER BY delisted ASC limit 0,1 CapitaLand Investment (SGX:9CI) Predictability Rank
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » CapitaLand Investment Ltd (SGX:9CI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

CapitaLand Investment (SGX:9CI) Predictability Rank


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What is CapitaLand Investment Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CapitaLand Investment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

CapitaLand Investment Predictability Rank Related Terms

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CapitaLand Investment (SGX:9CI) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » CapitaLand Investment Ltd (SGX:9CI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SGX:CY6U SGX:H30 SGX:OYY SGX:O10 SGX:5JK SGX:BTE SGX:CLN SGX:A30 SGX:5IC SGX:41O CSGP CBRE XMAD:CLNX BEKE TSE:8830 HKSE:01972 OSTO:AKEL D HKSE:01997 MIL:INW HKSE:01209
Traded in Other Exchanges
CLILF:USA 5NU:Germany
Address
168 Robinson Road, No.30-01 Capital Tower, Singapore, SGP, 068912
Website
https://www.capitalandinvest.com
CapitaLand Investment, or CLI, is a Singapore-headquartered real estate investment management company with SGD 133 billion in total asset under management. The company has two core business segments: real estate investment and fee income-related business. The majority of its earnings are derived from its real estate investment business where it invests in a portfolio of office, retail, lodging, logistics, business parks, and data center assets for rental income. The firm also derives fee income from lodging management and management of underlying assets in investment vehicles such as an unlisted fund or REIT on behalf of its capital partners.

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