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Shaanxi Huaqin Technology Industry Co (SHSE:688281) Predictability Rank


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What is Shaanxi Huaqin Technology Industry Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shaanxi Huaqin Technology Industry Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Shaanxi Huaqin Technology Industry Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Shaanxi Huaqin Technology Industry Co Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Shaanxi Huaqin Technology Industry Co Ltd (SHSE:688281) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:300775 SZSE:300034 SZSE:300045 SZSE:002389 SZSE:300008 SHSE:600967 SHSE:688685 SHSE:688543 SZSE:301592 SZSE:002985 GE RTX BA XPAR:AIR LMT XPAR:SAF LSE:RR. TDG GD XTER:RHM
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 188 West Avenue, High-tech Zone, Shaanxi Province, Xi'an City, CHN, 710119
Website
http://www.huaqinkj.com
Shaanxi Huaqin Technology Industry Co Ltd specializes in the research and development, production and sales of stealth materials, camouflage materials and protective materials. The products and technologies are mainly used in the stealth of national defense weapons and equipment, the camouflage of important ground military targets and the surface protection of various equipment.
Executives
Zhe Sheng Yang Director
Luo Fa Director
Dou Yong Qing Senior management, core technical personnel
Xu Jian Sheng senior management
Huang Zhi Bin Directors, senior managers, core technical personn
Wang Jun Fang senior management
Wu Teng Fei Director
Sun Ji Zhou Director
Zhou Wan Cheng Directors, senior managers, core technical personn
Li Zhan Core technical personnel
Li Peng Senior management, core technical personnel

Shaanxi Huaqin Technology Industry Co Headlines

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