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Scott's Liquid Gold (Scott's Liquid Gold) Predictability Rank


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What is Scott's Liquid Gold Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Scott's Liquid Gold Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Scott's Liquid Gold Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Scott's Liquid Gold (Scott's Liquid Gold) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Scott's Liquid Gold Inc (OTCPK:SLGD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PURE BMXC SNBH CAWW MNKA NASO DQWS TANH SKVI PGID PG XPAR:OR LSE:ULVR CL BOM:500696 EL KMB LSE:RKT KVUE XTER:BEI
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
8400 E. Crescent Parkway, Suite 450, Greenwood Village, CO, USA, 80111
Website
http://www.slginc.com
Scott's Liquid Gold Inc develop, market, and sell high-quality, high-value household and personal care products. Its business is divided into two operating segments: household products and health and beauty care products. Its family of brands includes Scott's Liquid Gold, Alpha Skin Care, Prell, Denorex, Kids N Pets, 7th Heaven by Montagne Jeunesse, and Batiste Dry Shampoo. The company generates a vast majority of its revenues from the Household Products segment.
Executives
John Mcannar director 111 SPRINGHALL DRIVE, GOOSE CREEK SC 29445
Maran Partners Fund, Lp 10 percent owner 150 FILLMORE STREET, SUITE 150, DENVER CO 80206
Mark E Goldstein director, 10 percent owner, officer: COB/President/CEO 4880 HAVANA ST, DENVER CO 80239
David M Arndt officer: Chief Financial Officer 3184 BARBWIRE WAY, CASTLE ROCK CT 80108
Tisha Pedrazzini director 15276 W. ELLSWORTH PL, GOLDEN CO 80401
R. Rimmy Malhotra director C/O COMMAND CENTER, INC., 3609 S WADSWORTH BLVD., SUITE 250, LAKEWOOD CO 80235
Maran Capital Management, Llc 10 percent owner 1409 COLUMBINE STREET, DENVER CO 80206
Maran Spv Gp, Llc 10 percent owner 1409 COLUMBINE STREET, DENVER CO 80206
Daniel J Roller 10 percent owner 1409 COLUMBINE STREET, DENVER CO 80206
Maran Partners Gp, Llc 10 percent owner 1409 COLUMBINE STREET, DENVER CO 80206
Maran Spv, Lp 10 percent owner 1409 COLUMBINE STREET, DENVER CO 80206
Iszo Capital Lp 10 percent owner 590 MADISON AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Andrew Summers director 601 JEFFERSON STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Kevin A. Paprzycki officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O SOLID POWER, INC., 486 S PIERCE AVE., SUITE E, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Brian L. Sheehy 10 percent owner 415 MADISON AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017