SLP (Simulations Plus) Predictability Rank

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What is Simulations Plus Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Simulations Plus Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Simulations Plus Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Simulations Plus Inc (NAS:SLP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

42505 Tenth Street West, Lancaster, CA, USA, 93534-7059

Website

https://www.simulations-plus.com

Simulations Plus Inc is engaged in the software industry. It includes two segments. It develops and produces software for use in pharmaceutical research and education, and provides consulting and contract research services to the pharmaceutical industry. The company's operating segments include Software and services. The company offers software products for pharmaceutical research such as ADMET (Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, Excretion, and Toxicity). It generates maximum revenue from the software segment. Maximum revenue is earned from USA following EMEA and Asia Pacific.

Executives

Walter S Woltosz	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	42505 10TH ST. WEST, LANCASTER CA 93534
Daniel L Weiner	director	800 WEST EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 200, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040
Lisa Lavange	director	42505 10TH ST., WEST, LANCASTER CA 93534
John Kenneth Paglia	director	746 GRABLE PLACE, NEWBURY PARK CA 91320
Dibella John Anthony Ii	officer: Division President	42505 10TH STREET WEST, LANCASTER CA 93534
Steven Chang	officer: President, Immunetrics	42505 10TH STREET WEST, LANCASTER CA 15203
Shawn Oconnor	officer: Chief Executive Officer	42505 10TH STREET WEST, LANCASTER CA 93534-7059
Jill Fiedler-kelly	officer: President, Cognigen Division	42505 10TH STREET WEST, LANCASTER CA 93534
Brett Howell	officer: President, DILIsym Division	42505 10TH STREET WEST, LANCASTER CA 93534
William W Frederick	officer: CFO	C/O SIMULATIONS PLUS, INC., 42505 10TH STREET WEST, LANCASTER CA 93534
Sharlene Evans	director	42505 10TH STREET WEST, LANCASTER CA 93534
Nguyen Nguyen	officer: VP of Human Resources	42505 TENTH STREET WEST, LANCASTER CA 93534
David L. Ralph	director	42505 10TH STREET WEST, LANCASTER CA 93534
John Robert Kneisel	officer: CFO	42505 10TH STREET WEST, LANCASTER CA 93534
Grasela Thaddeus Henry Jr	director, officer: President	1780 WEHRLE DRIVE SUITE 110, BUFFALO NY 14221