SNDR (Schneider National) Predictability Rank

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What is Schneider National Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Schneider National Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Schneider National Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Schneider National Inc (NYSE:SNDR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3101 South Packerland Drive, Green Bay, WI, USA, 54313

Website

https://www.schneider.com

Schneider National Inc is a provider of surface transportation and logistics solutions in North America. The Company offers truckload, intermodal, and logistics services to a diverse customer base throughout the continental United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company's segments include Truckload; Intermodal; Logistics and other. It generates maximum revenue from the Truckload segment.

Executives

Reich Robert M Jr	officer: Chief Admin Officer	3101 SOUTH PACKERLAND DRIVE, GREEN BAY WI 54313
Mark B. Rourke	officer: EVP & COO	3101 PACKERLAND DRIVE, GREEN BAY WI 54313
Thomas G Jackson	officer: EVP & General Counsel	KNOWLES CORPORATION, 1151 MAPLEWOOD DRIVE, ITASCA IL 60143
Shaleen Devgun	officer: Chief Information Officer	3101 PACKERLAND DRIVE, GREEN BAY WI 54313
Darrell George Campbell	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O SCHNEIDER NATIONAL, INC., 3101 SOUTH PACKERLAND DRIVE, GREEN BAY WI 54313
Julie K Streich	director	123 MAIN STREET, BRISTOL CT 06010
James Scott Filter	officer: EVP, Pres. Transp. and Log.	3101 SOUTH PACKERLAND DRIVE, GREEN BAY WI 54313
David L Geyer	officer: EVP, Pres. Transp. & Log.	3101 SOUTH PACKERLAND DRIVE, GREEN BAY WI 54313
Jyoti Chopra	director	3101 S. PACKERLAND DRIVE, GREEN BAY WI 54306-2545
Knight Robert M Jr	director	UNION PACIFIC CORP, 1416 DODGE ST, OMAHA NE 68179
Dumas Magnin Shelly A	officer: Vice President and Controller	3101 S. PACKERLAND DRIVE, GREEN BAY WI 54306-2545
Stephen L Bruffett	officer: EVP and CFO	3101 SOUTH PACKERLAND DRIVE, GREEN BAY WI 54313
Amy G Schilling	officer: Vice President and Controller	3101 PACKERLAND DRIVE, GREEN BAY WI 54313
John A Swainson	director	C/O VISA INC., 900 METRO CENTER BLVD., FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Christopher B Lofgren	director, officer: CEO & President	520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022