Syndax Pharmaceuticals (Syndax Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Syndax Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Syndax Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Syndax Pharmaceuticals (Syndax Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Syndax Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:SNDX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1T3:Germany

Address

35 Gatehouse Drive, Building D, Floor 3, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451

Website

https://www.syndax.com

Syndax Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing a pipeline of combination therapies in multiple cancer indications. The company's product candidates are entinostat which has direct effects on both cancer cells and immune regulatory cells, SNDX-6352 and SNDX-6352, an anti-CSF-1R monoclonal antibody, to enhance the body's immune response on tumors that have shown sensitivity to immunotherapy. Business activity of the group is primarily functioned through the region of United States.

Executives

Briggs Morrison	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SYNDAX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 400 TOTTEN POND ROAD, SUITE 110, WALTHAM MA 02451
William Meury	director	C/O FOREST LABORATORIES, INC., 909 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Keith A. Goldan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	227 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 200, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Neil Gallagher	officer: President, Head of R&D	35 GATEHOUSE DRIVE, BUILDING D, FLOOR 3, WALTHAM MA 02451
Peter Ordentlich	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O SYNDAX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 400 TOTTEN POND ROAD, SUITE 140, WALTHAM MA 02451
Michael A Metzger	officer: President and COO	C/O SYNDAX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 400 TOTTEN POND ROAD,, WALTHAM MA 02451
Pierre Legault	director	P.O. BOX 1028, C/O STONE MANAGEMENT LLC, BERWYNE PA 19312
Steve M Sabus	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	10628 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Keith Katkin	director	C/O UROVANT SCIENCES, INC., 5281 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92617
Dennis Podlesak	director	C/O PENINSULA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1751 HARBOR BAY PARKWAY, ALAMEDA CA 94502
Catherine Madigan	officer: Chief Medical Officer	35 GATEHOUSE DRIVE, BUILDING D, FLOOR 3, WALTHAM MA 02451
Alexander Nolte	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	35 GATEHOUSE DRIVE, BUILDING D, FLOOR 3, WALTHAM MA 02451
Fabrice Egros	director	C/O SYNDAX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., TOTTEN POND ROAD, SUITE 140, WALTHAM MA 02451
Huber Martin H. Jr.	director	C/O TESARO, INC., 1000 WINTER STREET, SUITE 3300, WALTHAM MA 02451
Daphne Karydas	officer: Chief Financial Officer	35 GATEHOUSE DRIVE, BUILDING D, FLOOR 3, WALTHAM MA 02451