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Sprout Tiny Homes (Sprout Tiny Homes) Predictability Rank


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What is Sprout Tiny Homes Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sprout Tiny Homes Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Sprout Tiny Homes Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Sprout Tiny Homes (Sprout Tiny Homes) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Homebuilding & Construction » Sprout Tiny Homes Inc (OTCPK:STHI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
DREM DHI LEN NVR PHM TSE:1928 TOL IBP LSE:TW. LSE:BKG TMHC LSE:BDEV TSE:1911 LSE:PSN MTH KBH SKY MDC LSE:VTY LSE:BWY
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
822 Hays Circle, Longmont, CO, USA, 80504
Website
https://www.sprouttinyhomes.com
Sprout Tiny Homes Inc is in the business of designing, developing, and manufacturing the highest quality affordable housing for individual purchases or tiny/eco-home real estate developments. The company is also engaged in developing its real estate development projects for sustainable living communities. It provides consulting and custom design services to customers that engage the company to build homes.
Executives
J2 Family Lp director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO 1507 CAPITAL AVENUE 101, PLANO TX 75074
John Edward Rea director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO
Jaavbr Lp director, 10 percent owner, officer: COO 1507 CAPITAL AVENUE 101, PLANO TX 75074
Bruce Arthur Hall officer: CFO 836 BLUE JAY LANE, COPPELL TX 75019
J Kenneth Dunn director 13760 NOEL ROAD, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75229
John N Brobjorg officer: Corporate Controller 1467 LEMAY, SUITE 111, CARROLLTON TX 75007
Rea Brothers Ltd 10 percent owner PO BOX 770, ADDISON TX 77001-0770
Rea Capital Corp 10 percent owner PO BOX 770, ADDISON TX 75001-0770
Marketplace Crafters 10 percent owner PO BOX 770, ADDISON TX 77001-0770
Michael A Jenkins director 1221 RIVERBEND DRIVE SUITE 120, DALLAS TX 75247
Paul S Johnson director 10254 CARRYBACK CIRCLE, DALLAS TX 75229
Edward P Rea director, 10 percent owner
James A Rea director, 10 percent owner, officer: COO 644 QUAIL LANE, COPPELL TX 75019
James A Estill 10 percent owner C/O SYNNEX CORPORATION, 44201 NOBEL DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94538
Kevin L Dahlberg officer: SVP-Finance 7031 INWOOD ROAD, DALLAS TX 75209